InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey in North Carolina: Obama 48%; Clinton 45%; --Tied Within Margin of Error
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
May 5, 2008 — An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Survey conducted for the Southern Political Report shows the Democratic Primary in North Carolina tightening. The results:
The telephone survey was conducted Sunday May 4 of 781 registered likely voters in the Tuesday Democratic primary. It was weighted for age, race, and gender, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.” Towery adds “ What is ironic is that Clinton has an outside chance to pull off a near-tie or victory in North Carolina, but our preliminary overnight numbers in Indiana show her losing steam, but holding a lead, in that state. We will release Indiana numbers by midday Monday.” Click here for crosstabs.