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Why Obama Won by Twelve rather Than Four in North Carolina and Why It Makes a difference: Hillary is Probably Finished

May 7, 2008 — Unless they pull a fast one in Gary, Indiana late tonight, it appears that we will be able to say that InsiderAdvantage has polled the correct winner now in 15 of 16 presidential primaries and caucuses this season. That’s the good news for us.

Here’s the bad news. We had the race a tight 4 point Obama victory (47% to 43% with 10% undecided). Were we wrong? Yes and no. The exit polls showed that the white vote was exactly as we polled it at 61%. The African-American vote was stronger for Obama (we showed Clinton with 17% and she received 10%) but, then again, we weighted African Americans at a higher percentage than the exit polls suggested.

So what accounted for the 55%-to-42% victory (latest numbers from North Carolina officials as of late in the evening)? The answer is two things: money (or lack thereof for Clinton) and undecided voters.

Clinton was badly outspent on North Carolina television and with an undecided as high as 10%, that meant that a sizeable group of voters really intended to vote but had not made up their mind. It now appears that Clinton stood still at the 43% or so level our poll showed her at as of Monday night and that Obama picked up the lion’s share of the undecided. That, given a little shredding to Mike Gravel and “Uncommitted” listed as choices on the ballot, left him right at that 55-to-56 percent range.

Why is the difference between a four point win and a 12-to-13 percent win so critical, even if we got the winner right? Because it knocks the wind out of Clinton’s sails in a top ten population state and basically will lead to an evaporation of her money. We won’t likely poll West Virginia or Kentucky, where she presumably would do well.

Clinton had all of the earned media, from Jeremiah Wright to the gas tax moratorium on her side. But it couldn’t overcome the power of Obama’s ability to put television ads up at every turn.

Yes, as I have said for nearly two years now, Florida will be an issue, as will Michigan. But for the Clintons to believe that the party will run the risk of alienating Obama’s followers now, after Tuesday’s results, is pure fantasy.

She has run a race full of heart. But barring some new big issue or event, my guess is that North Carolina puts an end to any real sustainable effort on Hillary Clinton’s behalf.