Home / News /

Grits

May 9, 2008 — Kentucky: Clinton Leading, Obama Gaining Supporters, Beshear Declining

The Bluegrass State will host the next Southern primary on May 20. Recent polls forecast a strong win for Hillary Clinton -- though it may come too late to help her: It’s 62% for Clinton to 28% for Obama, reports SurveyUSA in a May-3-5 poll. Or Clinton 56%, Obama 31%, says Rasmussen Reports in a May 6 poll. Most of the Bluegrass Democratic establishment is for Clinton, just like the voters. However, US Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), whose grandfather was the late “Happy” Chandler, former governor and US Senator and US baseball commissioner, has endorsed Obama. Kentucky’s other Democratic congressman, freshman John Yarmuth, is also in the Obama camp. And so is Louisville’s Courier-Journal, which endorsed Obama on May 4. Meanwhile, on another matter, SurveyUSA reports that Gov. Steve Beshear’s (D) approval rating has sunk to 38%, down 24 points since he took office in January and down 8 points since last month. Beshear’s low rating now rivals those of former Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), whom Beshear defeated last year in the face of the Fletcher administration’s hiring scandals,

Texas: GOP Ahead, but Not by Landslide

John McCain would beat Barack Obama by 48% to 43%, and would beat Hillary Clinton by 49% to 43%, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey released May 5. Perhaps of greater significance, US Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with the underfunded, relatively unknown state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) -- 47% for Cornyn, 43% for Noriega. While history suggests GOP wins in both races, recent trends in state legislative races, as well as recent polling data, indicate that the Democrats are gaining in the Lone Star State.

North Carolina: The Year of the Women

The primary victories of two Tar Heel women -- Beverly Perdue for governor and Kay Hagan for senator -- were only the tip of the iceberg for Democratic women in North Carolina. In addition, women won three more contested statewide primaries out right, giving them a five-to-two lead over the men. In one race, for commissioner of labor, Mary Fant Donnan came in first, but failed to reach the 40% threshold, but the three men were so close to each other, it is not clear who she will face in the June 24 runoff. “If you had a female name, you won,” says Ferrell Guillory, Director of UNC’s Program on Public Life. One major advantage for female contenders: Women accounted for 57% of Democratic Primary voters. On the GOP side, in the four contested statewide races, US Sen. Elizabeth Dole won an easy renomination, while men won the other three races, governor (Pat McCrory), lieutenant governor and superintendent of public instruction.

Florida: Schneider Muddies the Water

Jan Schneider, once a Yale Law School classmate of Hillary and Bill Clinton, won the Democratic nomination for congress in Florida’s 13th District (Sarasota, etc.), in 2002 and 2004, but lost -- to then Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) -- both times. She ran again in 2006, but lost the Democratic Primary to banker Christine Jennings. Now Schneider has filed to run for the seat as an independent, a move sure to complicate the efforts of likely Democratic nominee Jennings, who lost the seat by a mere 369 votes last time. Freshman GOPer Vern Buchanan, already way ahead in fundraising, can rest a little easier.

Louisiana: Cazayoux Can’t Take It Easy