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Return of the 'Yankee Republican' in 2010

June 15, 2009 —  "The Yankee is one who, if he once gets his teeth set on a thing, all creation can't make him let go."  The quote, attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson, perhaps applies to the hardy "Yankee Republican."  Once written off for dead by the media, the Northeastern Republican is poised for a huge comeback in 2010.

When Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter jumped ship, it seemed as though only Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins remained for the GOP in this part of the country.  In fact, throughout the Northeast, Republicans are seen as a rare breed.  But thanks to a combination of open seats, Democratic Party divisions, and incompetent incumbents, the Northern Republicans are about ready to add some numbers for their Southern allies.

It all begins in New England.  Once seen as the only GOP bastion during the New Deal, the Bush years have been unkind to Republicans in this region.  But some big changes are on the horizon.  Maine Governor John Baldacci, a Democrat, is term limited.  Vermont's Republican Jim Douglas is as popular as ever, failing to draw a strong opponent (so far).  Democrats are likely to hold the governor's mansion in New Hampshire but Republicans could sweep all three legislative seats on the 2010 ballot.  Democrat US Rep. Paul Hodes is giving up his seat for a US Senate run, and liberal US Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is lucky to have won in the first place.  Ex-New Hampshire Senator John Sununu Jr. could win his old job back, holding the seat for the GOP as Judd Gregg retires.

In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating is so low that he drew a primary challenger: State Treasurer Tim Cahill.  The winner of this bruising primary is sure to be weakened against the GOP nominee.  And don't forget that Republicans won this race four of the last five times.  In Connecticut, Democrats don't have an answer for Gov. Jodi Rell, but Republicans are favored to solve the dilemma of how to oust incumbent US Sen. Christopher Dodd.  If the race were held today, former US Rep. Rob Simmons, a Republican, would win this one.  While's he's technically not a Republican anymore, look for former US Sen. Lincoln Chafee to be the next Rhode Island Governor.

An open gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania and unpopular incumbents in New York (David Paterson), New Jersey (Jon Corzine) and Maryland (Martin O'Malley) tell the additional tale of Democratic Party woes in the Northeast.  Another bitter Democratic primary, this time in the U.S. Senate, could allow New York Republicans to pick up Hillary Clinton's old seat, especially if George Pataki or Peter King runs.  And popular Delaware GOP Congressman Michael Castle could actually take Joe Biden's US Senate seat, if he takes the plunge.  And another bruising primary is emerging for the Democrats in the race for Specter's seat, giving the GOP another opportunity in the U.S. Senate.

So why is the Yankee Republican back in business?  It's a combination of several factors, such as the persisting economic woes for the region.  Also George W. Bush, wildly unpopular in the Northeast, is no longer a drag on the ticket that cost a number of likeable GOP politicians their jobs.  A bitter split is emerging between moderates and liberals on the Democratic Party side, coupled with the arrogance of some Democratic Party incumbents who felt they were bulletproof because of the GOP's unpopularity.  So expect the Southern Republicans to get a little "run support" in their ability to get some allies up North next fall.