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Georgia 9: Crowded contest for Nathan Deal’s congressional seat

June 1, 2009 —

Seven Republicans in Georgia’s 9^th District (Gainesville, etc.) have either officially entered, or are seriously considering entering, the race to fill the congressional vacancy that will be left when nine-term US Rep. Nathan Deal steps down to run for governor of Georgia next year.

Among those who have already declared that they plan to run, the latest entry is former state Sen. Bill Stephens (R), who filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) last week so he can begin raising funds for the race. Stephens, a former majority leader in the state senate, also has some name ID from a statewide campaign for secretary of state, losing in the runoff to current incumbent Karen Handel (R), now a candidate for governor. Stephens served on the staff of former Gov. Zell Miller (D), who is now on Stephens’ finance committee, along with a number of prominent business people from the district. While Stephens lives across the line in the neighboring 6^th District, he grew up in the 9^th District (Gainesville).

Mike Evans, a former state representative and former chairman of the Georgia Board of Transportation, has also declared his candidacy. Evans is from Forsyth County, which has the largest concentration of voters in the district. In 2007, after Evans was no longer on the board, his wife Gena Evans, the Transportation Commissioner, was fired after a prolonged controversy, much of it over budgetary issues, with some members of the board. Mike Evans, says a political insider, “has the overwhelming support” of state legislators across the district.

State Rep. Tom Graves is from Pickens County, a relatively small county in the southwest corner of the district. Graves “is a good House member,” says the insider, “and is in the top tier of candidates. The question is, can he raise the money?” Graves has been known in the legislature as a strong advocate for business, sponsoring a bill this year that would have given a tax credit to employers who hire unemployed people; the bill would have also cut the state capital gains tax in half. (The bill passed, but was vetoed by Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)).

Whitfield County Commissioner Wes Cowan’s base includes the population center of Dalton  (“Carpet Capital of the World”), but its location near the northwest corner of the district may make it difficult for Cowan to run strong outside his home county.

Jeremy Jones is a Ringgold businessman and political activist, who recently participated in the TEA (Taxed Enough Already?) protest against President Obama’s economic policies.

Expressing interest but not yet in the race are state Sen. Lee Hawkins of Gainesville and state Rep. David Ralston of Blue Ridge, who told Washington’s Roll Call newspaper he is “very, very serious” about making the race. Ralston was the Republican nominee for state attorney general in 1998, losing to Thurbert Baker (D) by 45% to 50%. Baker is now running for governor.

Other names (R) getting mentioned by the media include Max Burns, the former congressman from the 12^th District (Augusta to Savannah), who now lives in the 9^th District where he is a dean at North Georgia College and State University in Dahlonega; Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle of Gainesville; and radio talk show host Martha Zoller.

While Democrats may run a token candidate, the 9^th District is the most Republican in the Peach State, last year giving John McCain 75%, and giving 79% to US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) in his runoff. The district is also the only one in the state where every one of its state legislators is a Republican. Voter registration in the district is 91% white, 3% black, with a balance of Hispanics, Asians and others. The district is also conservative, giving Mike Huckabee 41%, his highest percentage in any Georgia district, in the 2008 presidential primary.

With such a large field and the likelihood of a runoff, it is far too early for a forecast. However, SPR’s insider says that Stephens and Evans “are at the front of the train. Graves is a little bit back.”