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June 23, 2008 — Kentucky: Dueling Polls in Senate Race

A new poll of Kentucky voters released Tuesday by SurveyUSA showed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) leading millionaire Bruce Lunsford, his Democratic challenger, by a narrow 50% to 46%. Then on Wednesday, McConnell released his own poll, taken June 15-17 by Voter/Consumer Research, which gave McConnell a 50%-39% lead. Despite the closeness of SurveyUSA results, they were an improvement for McConnell over a Rasmussen Reports poll taken May 22, immediately following Lunsford’s victory in the Democratic Primary, which showed Lunsford ahead by 49% to 44%. In any case, this is a race to watch.

North Carolina: Kissell’s Poll Shows Him Leading Hayes

In 2006, former textile worker and school teacher ran an underfunded campaign and came within 329 votes of defeating incumbent US Rep. Robin Hayes (R). Now comes an Anzalone Liszt poll, taken for Kissell, showing him leading five-term Hayes by 45% to 43%. Meanwhile, Hayes -- used to tough races -- is not resting on his laurels. This week, he charged again that Kissell is using a “tax dodge” to pay his campaign staff by classifying them as independent contractors, thus avoiding having to pay payroll taxes. Kissell’s poll also showed Obama beating McCain in the district by 50% to 37%, although in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 54% to 45%.

Texas: Doherty’s Poll Shows Him Close to McCaul

A poll taken for Larry Joe Doherty, the Democratic challenger to nine-term US Rep. Mike McCaul (R), shows him trailing McCaul by 43% to 34%, suggesting significant weakness in the incumbent. The survey was taken May 27-31 by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research. Less than a week later, a June 2 survey taken by IVR Polls -- not paid for by Doherty, though the firm has polled for Democrats in the past -- showed McCaul with 52% to Doherty’s 46%.

Louisiana: Jefferson Running Again; His Sister Pleads Guilty

Only days after nine-term US Rep. William Jefferson (D) announced that he will run for re-election this fall, his sister, Brenda Jefferson, pled guilty to federal charges of concealing an alleged scheme to defraud the government. Her attorney said that she is cooperating with the prosecution. This could make things difficult for Jefferson, both in his trial on federal bribery charges on Dec. 2, as well as with the electorate, who could interpret this development as an indication that Jefferson will be convicted. In a statement released earlier this week, the embattled lawmaker cited some seven important legislative actions he helped pass to assist his 2^nd District (New Orleans) in its continuing recovery from Hurricane Katrina. He also attacked the charges against him as “false,” adding, “My family and I have sworn a great oath to trust God and to fight on to vindicate ourselves and our good name.” Meanwhile, a number of challengers are gearing up to oppose Jefferson, including, on the Democratic side, state Rep. Cedric Richmond, former City Councilman Byron Lee and former newscaster Helena Morena. Two Republicans are also considering the race, Dr. Gary Clark of Dillard University and attorney Joe Lavigne, who finished fourth with 13% in field of 12 in the 2006 race; in the later runoff, Jefferson won by 57%.

Virginia: Drake Challenger Getting Help

Glenn Nye, a former Foreign Service Officer, is getting significant state and national help in his bid to unseat second-term US Rep. Thelma Drake (R), who was re-elected in 2006 with a slim 51% of the vote. Earlier this week, US Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) endorsed Nye, 33, and mid-week, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), along with US Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), headlined a Norfolk fundraiser for Nye. Clyburn told the Virginian-Pilot he had already contributed $5,000 to Nye and planned to contribute another $5,000 soon. Clyburn’s appearance is a double-whammy for Nye. First, as the third-ranking Democrat in the US House, he brings national clout to the Nye campaign. Second, as the House’s highest ranking black lawmaker, he helps Nye with African Americans, who comprise 20% of the district’s electorate. In addition, Scott’s presence should also help Nye generate enthusiasm among the district’s black voters. Webb’s endorsement, along with the support of a number of retired military officers who hosted Nye’s fundraiser, could help him with the district’s large number of voters connected to military bases. Drake, however, is an effective campaigner and remains the favorite, though not a heavy one.