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Obama Targets a Swath of Dixie
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
June 25, 2008 — When the Obama campaign launched its first television ads in 18 key states across the country, four of them were in the South -- Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. With a combined total of 70 electoral votes, were these four states to desert the solid (Republican) South and back Obama, it would be almost impossible for McCain to win the presidency. Moreover, the move by Obama to gamble in these four states will force the McCain campaign, with its tight finances, to campaign in states that it has surely hoped it could count on, while Obama, with his seemingly limitless supply of Internet-supplied cash, can afford to make a serious play for states where he’s not necessarily the favorite. The Obama campaign will not acknowledge what its television strategy indicates, i.e., that some states are getting more attention from them than others. According to Obama spokeswoman Amy Brundage, “Senator Obama has strong grassroots support throughout the South -- and in all 50 states,” further noting that they expect to have “a campaign presence, staff and leadership in each of the 50 states.” Nevertheless, there is already some Obama staff operating in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, and more are likely to be added in the coming weeks. For now, they are concentrating on voter registration, mostly working through “Vote for Change,” an Obama campaign effort. The fact that Obama intends to compete seriously in these four states does not mean the Illinois senator will carry them. McCain has strong factors in his favor -- especially voting history -- in all of them. Moreover, at this early stage, it is not certain what the big issues will be this fall. But Obama’s strategy, and the poll numbers behind it, does suggest that the South, rather than being a taken-for-granted part of the GOP base that is basically ignored by the Democrats, will be a crucial element in one of the most competitive and historic elections in modern American politics. Here are snapshots of Obama’s effort in the four targeted states. Florida: A Close Race Once Again The latest polls show a close fight in the Sunshine State, nothing new for this major battleground in 2000 and 2004. It is Obama 49%, McCain 44%, said American Research Group on June 13-17. Flip that, said Rasmussen Reports on June 18, giving McCain 47%, Obama 39%. Obama’s “Vote for Change” already has a state director here, as well as other staff. There are still some bumps in the road for Obama, however. The Clinton and Obama factions are squabbling over which party officials get to take the one-half vote delegate slots allotted to them at the national convention, with even Congressman Alcee Hastings (D-FL), an African American who backed Clinton, declaring he will not attend the convention as a protest. Georgia: No Longer Safe Republican? The latest survey of Peach State voters shocked political observers here and across the country. SPR’s affiliated pollster, InsiderAdvantage/PollPosition, in a poll taken June 18, showed McCain with a razor-thin 44% to 43% lead over Obama. The survey showed Obama winning the black vote by 83% to 9% and McCain winning the white vote by 61% to 25%. If the turnout patterns are any guide, black turnout will be substantially higher than usual this fall. An additional problem for McCain is that Bob Barr, the former Georgia Republican congressman, will be on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate and received 6% in the survey. Moreover, Obama has already been in high gear here, with voter registration staff on the ground, as many as eight or eighteen, according to unconfirmed reports. McCain, however, will have Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue and a slew of other elected officials from the GOP in his corner. North Carolina: A Battleground This Year It’s McCain 45%, Obama 41% in the Tar Heel State, said Tel Opinion for Civitas Institute on June 11-13. Moreover, voter registration trends are favoring the Democrats, Since January, 121,000 Democrats have registered to vote in the Tar Heel State compared with 13,000 Republicans. This is a major change toward the Democrats, who at the end of 2007 had 45% of registrants to 34% for Republicans. The new voters aren’t just a boost for Obama, but are also likely to help other Democratic candidates. If there is a shift in the turn-out toward the Democrats, it could help state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) in her already competitive battle with US Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R), or in the governor’s race, help Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) against Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R). However, it’s hardly a done deal for Obama; the Republicans, for example, may run even better than usual among mountain voters in Western North Carolina, where Clinton ran strongly against Obama in the primary. Virginia: Moving Toward Obama Obama has come out ahead in several recent polls in the Old Dominion; in the latest, it’s Obama 47%, McCain 45%, said Public Policy Polling in a survey taken June 14-16. In addition to Obama’s “Vote for Change” organization, Gov. Tim Kaine (D), an early Obama backer, is cooperating with several groups to pardon qualifying felons who have served their sentences -- not including those convicted of violent crimes -- so that they can register to vote this November. While the Obama campaign is not affiliated with this effort, the Washington Post quoted an Obama volunteer who acknowledged that “Vote for Change” volunteers carry ‘vote restoration’ forms to apply for the pardon when they canvas for potential voters. The effort has drawn fire from Republicans, who see it as a boost to Obama (some 20% of African Americans in Virginia are ineligible to vote because of felony convictions), but praise from liberals, including the Post in an editorial. Here again, however, McCain can’t be counted out; for starters, the heavy military presence in the state is likely to help him. |
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