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'Best little governor's race in Texas' tops 2010 list

June 9, 2009 —  With only two incumbents returning in the eight Southern states electing a governor next year, there should be a lot of good races to follow in 2010.

A Florida race between  state CEO Alex Sink and Attorney General Bill McCollum – or state Sen. Paula Dockery, for that matter – could be a matchup for the ages. With Republicans departing in Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, and Democrats leaving in Tennessee and Oklahoma, both parties will have to struggle to hang on to their turf, and there should be lots of interesting primary twists in all these states.

But for both in-state entertainment value and national significance, the most interesting race in the region – and perhaps the country – is one of those where an incumbent is attempting to hang on to his seat. It pits the Marlboro Man, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, against the Pi Phi: US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. And that’s just the opening round.

Some have begun calling it the best little governor’s race in Texas, after Perry’s campaign consultant, David Carney, caused a bit of a row by saying that while the GOP should attract new voters, that didn’t mean it should “become a whorehouse and let anybody in who wants to come in, regardless.”

Regrettable as that comment may have been from the perspective of gender politics, it does speak to what most observers see as the political reality behind this race. A low-turnout race dominated by the Republicans’ conservative base is likely to favor Perry, while a broader primary turnout with more moderates would help Hutchison.

Perry has gotten lots of national attention this year by refusing federal stimulus funds for unemployment benefits and flirting briefly – and not very seriously – with the idea of secession. But these expressions of right-wing fervor have been aimed squarely at Texas conservatives.

“He and his campaign have sort of said no one’s going to get to the right of us, and no one has. But if he does that, has he sacrificed all the moderates?” said Dave McNeely, a veteran Texas political analyst and co-author of  “Bob Bullock: God Bless Texas,” a biography of the late lieutenant governor.

That question could be significant because the rival appears to have found a candidate who harkens back to the old days of the Tory Democrats: former Texas Ranger president Tom Schieffer, who served as George W. Bush’s ambassador to Australia and later, Japan. How well Schieffer might do will be hard to say before it’s known how much the Republicans have skinned themselves up in their primary, but there’s as much general-election buzz about this race as there has been in Texas since Bush beat Ann Richards in 1994. (Schieffer doesn't have a free ticket. He will face Kinky Friedman, returning as a Democrat four years after his run as an independent, and possibly a more problematic challenge from a Hispanic Democrat, state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio.)

The Perry-Hutchison primary struggle is sure to be read nationally as an emblematic battle for the soul of the GOP, although on most issues the two are very close. Hutchison has a solid record on most of the score cards kept by conservative groups. Her greatest vulnerability among social conservatives is the abortion issue: She has voted for a number of measures restricting abortion, but has maintained abortion should be legal under certain circumstances.

At the state level, this race may be less about ideology and more about competing styles of Republicanism, centered around two candidates who have been allies and sometime rivals since the 1980s.

“You have two of the largest political personalities to come along in the last 30 years,” said Bryan Preston, communications director for the Texas Republican Party.

The race entered a new phase last week with the end of the legislative session. Hutchison has long no time laying the blame for the legislature’s failure to take action on several measures on Perry’s lack of leadership, while Perry’s campaign has made the case it would be better for Republicans if Hutchison held on to her US Senate seat.

A poll of Texas Republican voters made available to supporters by Perry's campaign, showed 67 percent of Texans would prefer Hutchison serve out her term rather than risk giving up the seat to a Democrat.

Hutchison has not yet formally entered the race or given an indication of when she’ll leave the Senate, which also has some Washington Republicans nervous. But observers say this epic primary battle is already well under way.

A third Republican is considered likely to enter the race, with much less money or name ID but the possibility of having an impact: state Rep. Leo Berman of Tyler. His signature issue is illegal immigration.

"The X factor is, how many votes does he peel away from Perry?" said Ross Ramsey, editor of the Texas Weekly.

The polls in the Republican primary race have been all over the block, and probably don't tell much. After  an early poll showed Hutchison with a lead of more than 20 points, Perry's campaign took the unusual step of sending supporters its own poll, conducted by Baselice and Associates, which has Perry down by only six points, while prominently mentioning a third poll, by Rasmussen Reports, which has Perry up by four.