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Louisiana: Jefferson Draws Seven Foes; Jackson Enters 6th District Race

July 14, 2008 — Louisiana’s filing deadline for the fall elections ended Friday, July 11, setting competitive primaries and/or general election contests for the US Senate and in four congressional districts. The biggest development was the last minute entry of state Rep. Michael Jackson (D) as an independent in the 6^th District, a development that is likely to help the GOP regain the seat it lost to US Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) in May. However, in the 4^th District, state Sen. Lydia Jackson (D) failed to enter the race, improving the chances of a Democratic takeover of that district.

US Senate

Two-term US Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) drew no opponents in the Democratic Primary, but her Republican challenger, State Treasurer John N. Kennedy, will face another candidate, Jacques Boudreaux, a landscape contractor and political novice, in the GOP primary. Boudreaux is unlikely to offer serious competition to Kennedy, but he may make him spend at least a little money he’d rather save for the November race. Landrieu has been leading in the polls, but not by much. Leans Democratic.

2^nd District (New Orleans): Jefferson Draws a Crowd

Seven candidates, each with significant political credentials, have filed to run against indicted nine-term US Rep. William Jefferson (D): James Carter, a New Orleans city councilman; Troy Carter, a former state representative and former New Orleans city councilman, who will be strong in the Algiers part of the district; Jimmy Fahrenholtz, member of the New Orleans school board; Byron Lee, member of the Jefferson Parish Council; Helena Moreno, an attractive former TV anchor (seven years); state Rep. Cedric Richmond, a leader in the Legislative Black Caucus, whose strength overlaps Jefferson’s; and Kenya Smith, a former aide to Mayor Ray Nagin (D).

Given that many in Jefferson’s family have become ensnared in the same bribery case that involves Jefferson, “the outlook for him is not good,” says Louisiana pollster Bernie Pinsonat. However, he could end up in a runoff where he would have an advantage. If, for example, he comes up against Moreno, who should have wide appeal to the district’s white voters, Jefferson could run well in this 64% black district. In the General Election, the Democratic nominee will face nominal opposition from Republican, Libertarian and Green Party contenders. Safe Democratic.

3^rd District (Morgan City, etc.): Melancon Home Free

No Republican filed against two-term US Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), leaving the Democrat free to spend his political energies helping other Democrats in Louisiana’s competitive congressional races. Safe Democratic.

4^th District (Shreveport, etc.): Two Contested Primaries

Paul Carmouche, district attorney for Caddo Parish (Shreveport), drew only weak Democratic Primary opposition from two former candidates for the seat, which is being vacated by ten-term US Rep. Jim McCrery (R). In addition, the failure of African-American state Sen. Lydia Jackson (D) to file, either in the primary or as an independent in the General Election, gives Carmouche an additional boost. Carmouche “is such a moderate, popular Democrat that he’s very likely to get some longstanding business support out of Shreveport,” says a lobbyist. Nevertheless, the GOP is gearing up to make a major effort to hold this seat. Three candidates, each with significant pluses, have filed in the Republican Primary: Physician John Fleming; businessman (trucking), who started his campaign early; civic and business leader Chris Gorman; and Jeff Thompson, lawyer and former local chamber of commerce official who has the support of McCrery. Bush got 59% here in 2004. Leans Republican.

6^th District (Baton Rouge):  A New Race

In the 6^th District (Baton Rouge, etc.), when former state Rep. and long time conservative leader Woody Jenkins (R) announced that he would not be a candidate for the full term of the congressional seat, the smart money smelled a new contest altogether. Jenkins, a controversial conservative, lost to now US Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) in a special election in May. Moreover, another likely contender, Laurinda Calongne (R), who made the runoff with Jenkins, also announced that she will not run. That left the GOP field to physician and state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who has the backing of the state Republican establishment -- including Gov. Bobby Jindal and probably Jenkins as well, and is expected run a strong race. There may also be some business defections from Cazayoux over his endorsement by unions, although he is pro-life and pro-gun, both key issues here. Add to this new-found GOP unity that the Democrats are not so united. State Rep. Michael Jackson, who lost the Democratic runoff (43% to 57%) to Cazayoux in the special election, filed to run again as a “no party affiliation” candidate in the General Election. Jackson is a moderate African American who might divert enough African-American votes from the Democrat to elect Cassidy.

The Democratic Party’s voter registration drive has made a major impact among black voters here. According to Baton Rouge’s The Advocate, a record high 15,485 new voters registered in East Baton Rouge Parish in the first six months of the year; 63% of these are African Americans. Of the total new registrants, 63% are Democrats, 15% Republicans and 22% other, including “no party.” With Jackson in the race, the value of these numbers to Cazayoux is less clear. Moreover, Cazayoux now has the power of incumbency. All things considered, the district now Leans Republican.

7^th District (Lafayette, etc.): Boustany Draws a Foe

State Sen. Don Cravins, Jr.  (D), a moderate African-American Democrat, is expected to give two-term US Rep. Charles Boustany (R) a significant challenge, especially if the national Democratic trend shows up in Louisiana (and why shouldn’t it?). Cravins, says pollster Pinsonat, “is going to make [Boustany] work, but is he going to beat him? I don’t think so.” Although Cravins is a plaintiffs’ attorney, one close observer of Pelican State politics says that he is, “is not all like his father, who was anti-business.” The elder Cravins is former state Sen. Don Cravins, Sr., who ran a strong but losing race for this seat in 2004. Cravins, Jr., also gets points for his work on Hurricane Katrina issues from his positions as chairman of the Senate’s committee on insurance. The district is 25% black, but black voters may form a larger share of the electorate since the recent Democratic voter registration in the state. Moreover, the Obama candidacy is likely to increase the turnout of African-American voters, here as elsewhere. Boustany is the incumbent, however, and Bush did get 60% here in 2004. “This one could be a sleeper,” says a political consultant (D).  For now, Likely Republican.