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Martin, Jones battle toward likely runoff in Georgia

July 15, 2008 — If history is any guide, Vernon Jones, a black Democrat, will be up against Sen. Saxby Chambliss, a white Republican, on the general election ballot in November. There's the matter of a runoff first with Jim Martin, who finished behind Jones Tuesday night in the state's primary. But University of Georgia Political Scientist Charles Bullock says that statistically, runoffs are won 70 percent of the time by the guy who finished first in the primary.

Three incumbent congressmen coasted past challengers: Paul Broun, John Barrow and John Lewis.

But a powerful state lawmaker fell to a challenger in a district in which House Speaker Glenn Richardson was an issue, and a state senator was forced into a runoff.

Jones, who is black and who has worked to link himself with Barack Obama, showed impressive pulling power in the rural portion of Georgia often regarded as the Black Belt. This despite the fact that Obama only last week took pains to distance himself from a flyer which Jones circulated that featured likenesses of the two men together.

Bullock said Jones' performance wasn't particularly surprising, given that 55 percent of the votes cast by Democrats in the Super Tuesday primary came from black voters. "He's doing very well in areas where there is a substantial black population but he's not winning over the old Sam Nunn Democrats," he said.

Chambliss will be a formidable opponent in November, no matter which candidate Democratic voters finally choose. He's got a huge warchest and he's ahead in the polls.

In the 10th Congressional District, Paul Broun, the surprise winner a year ago in a special election to fill the late Congressman Charlie Norwood’s seat, trounced Republican primary challenger Barry Fleming after a bruising contest in which Fleming raised questions about Broun's past and Broun raised questions about Fleming's faith.

"Barry Fleming just couldn't get traction, even in his home district," said Bullock. "Barry certainly wasn't hurting for money. He was an aggressive campaigner. He was all over the district. I assume people will look at this result and it will mean that Paul pretty much gets a free ride in 2010. And if the district isn't substantially changed in redistricting, it may be quite a while before anyone takes him on."

In the 12t District, Democrat John Barrow coasted past Regina Thomas, and in the 5th District, civil rights icon John Lewis fended off a pair of challengers, pretty much as expected.

In a Bartow County Republican primary, Rep. Jeff Lewis, chairman of the Public Utilities and Telecommunications Committee, fell to challenger Paul Battles, a retired banker. House Speaker Glenn Richardson's "GREAT" plan had been an issue in that race and Battles said during a debate he would never vote to re-elect Richardson as Speaker. Lewis said in the same debate he hoped there would be another option he could consider for Speaker.

But in the old gold fields of north Georgia, Rep. Amos Amerson was beating challenger Steve Gooch in a race in which the two were essentially proxies for Richardson and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. Richardson backed Amerson; Cagle backed Gooch.

In the north Georgia mountains, Sen. Nancy Schaefer was trailing challenger Jim Butterworth and appeared headed for a runoff.