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Money-raising ability a key 2010 indicator

July 24, 2009 — The 2^nd Quarter financial reports to the Federal Election Commission give some early indications about next year’s US House races. With the election some 15 months away, nothing is definite. However, some candidates are already showing an aptitude for bringing in money, a major advantage in any campaign.

In three districts with looming Democratic primary contests, the money suggests who will be strong next year. In Alabama 7 (Birmingham, etc.), being vacated by Artur Davis, attorney Terry Sewell is way ahead of state Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr. and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot. Hilliard and Smoot already have name ID, however. In Florida 17, which US Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) is leaving, state Sen. Frederica Wilson is an easy winner in the race for the Democratic primary gold. And in Florida 2 (Tallahassee, etc.), where liberalish state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson is challenging seven-term US Rep. Allen Boyd in the 2010 primary, Lawson is way behind in fundraising, not a good sign.

Reflecting the near-dominance of Southern politics by the GOP, there are a lot more districts with competitive Republican primaries. In Florida 24 (Orlando, etc.), Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel is far ahead of physician Ken Miller in the GOP contest to challenge freshman Suzanne Kosmas (D). In Georgia 9 (Gainesville, etc.), former state Rep. Mike Evans has an early, but not prohibitive, money lead in the contest to succeed US Rep. Nathan Deal (R). In Oklahoma 5 (Oklahoma City, etc.), being vacated by US Rep. Mary Fallin (R), state Rep. Mike Thompson is amassing significantly more money than his primary opponent, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey. In South Carolina 3 (Greenwood, etc.), where US Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) is stepping down, state Rep. Rex Rice, who has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee, came in first financially among six candidates, but he’s still got a lot of reasonably funded competition. In Tennessee 3 (Chattanooga, etc.), attorney Charles Fleischmann and Church of God official Arthur Rhodes lead the GOP field, in part because of major loans to their campaigns.

In Greenville 4 (Greenville-Spartanburg, etc.), six-term US Rep. Bob Inglis is attracting major opposition in the GOP primary. Inglis has raised the most cash, but not the kind of funds he’s likely to need to fend off so many hard-charging foes, at least one of whom -- Spartanburg Solicitor Trey Gowdy -- is raising real money.

Several Democratic challengers of Republican incumbents also showed promise in the reports. In Florida 10 (St. Petersburg, etc.), state Sen. Charlie Justice raised nearly twice as much in the 2^nd Quarter as 20-term US Rep. Bill Young (R), though Young has much more cash-on-hand. And in Texas 10 (Austin, etc.), businessman Jack McDonald actually has more money in the bank than third-term incumbent Mike McCaul (R), but McCaul always ends up with more than enough to finance his campaigns.

As for Republican challengers, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby in Alabama 2 (Montgomery, etc.), who is running against freshman Bobby Bright (D), and surgeon Wayne Mosley in Georgia 12 (Savannah to Augusta), who is running against third-term John Barrow (D), are showing promise. Iraq War veteran Allen West in Florida 22 (Boca Raton, etc.), who got 45% against 2nd-term Ron Klein (D) last year and is running again, did all right in the 2^nd Quarter, but is still way behind in cash-on-hand.

Finally, freshman Joseph Cao (R), the only Vietnamese in Congress, has an uphill re-election battle in Louisiana’s heavily African-American and Democratic 2^nd District (New Orleans, etc.), but he’s raking in the dough!

FEC Reports, US House, June 30, 2009

Incumbents listed first