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The Electoral College Wall

July 25, 2008 — Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are locked in an extremely tight race for the presidency if the early contours of the Electoral College are any indication.

Currently, Obama holds solid leads in 14 states with 183 electoral votes.

McCain holds strong leads in 17 states with 144 electoral votes.

Two hundred seventy votes are needed to win the presidency.

Here are Obama’s strong states: Washington, California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, and Maine,

McCain has a strong hold on Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Wyoming, Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina.

On the popular vote front, the latest presidential tracking poll by the Rasmussen Reports shows Obama attracting 42 percent of the vote while McCain earns 41 percent.

A McCain victory by any margin today would have to be considered an upset, said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.

A McCain triumph could be accomplished with a narrow Electoral College majority, but that’s highly unlikely, experts say.

Obama is considered the presidential frontrunner by a large majority of political observers, including many Republicans privately.

The McCain people have made public statements suggesting they have hopes of winning some of those rock solid Obama states.

“But if they are serious, then they will end up wasting a lot of money because they are destined to lose all these states,” Sabato said.

The Obama people have also made noises about trying to win some of those states that are solidly in McCains’ camp.

“We would be surprised if Obama secures any of these states,” Sabato said.

Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri with 53 electoral votes are important states to McCain.

“If he loses even one of them, he will be up against the Electoral College wall,” Sabato said.

In the end, McCain and Obama will be competing for 57 electoral votes.

Michael Baudinet of the University of Virginia Center for Politics argued that despite a very difficult national political environment for republicans, McCain has a good chance of winning the 2008 presidential contest because he enjoys one key advantage over his democratic rival, Barack Obama.

McCain clinched his party’s nomination three months earlier than Obama.

Baudinet presented data showing that the candidates who secured his party’s nomination have won nine of the last ten presidential elections.

“Wrapping up the nomination early is a significant advantage, Baudinet says, because it allows the candidate more time to unite the party and prepare for the general election campaign.”