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When Southerners Make The Ticket…

July 8, 2008 — Should Obama make the call to John Edwards? Must McCain give Fred Dalton Thompson or Mike Huckabee a second look? Evidence from the last 108 years contends that it would a good choice. Having a Southerner on the Presidential Party ticket dramatically improves one's chances of sitting in the Oval Office.

Looking back to 1896 (the first post-Reconstruction "modern" election), I determine where state the presidential and vice-presidential candidate is from. Then I note whether the candidate is a Southerner, and whether the pair won that year.

My research shows that when a Southerner is on the ticket, the pair wins 63.7 percent of the time. That winning percentage drops down to a 41.2 percent likelihood of victory if no Southerner is on the ballot for the party.

The findings show improvements for both parties. The Democratic Party has put a Southerner on the ticket 16 times, with 9 victories to show for it. That's more than twice as good as their 12 elections with no Southerner listed on the ballot. Only three won in those cases: FDR in 1940, and Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Of course, Wilson was born in Staunton, Virginia, long before he became New Jersey's Governor, further cementing the party's ties to a successful Southern strategy.

The results are also impressive for the Grand Old Party. Since 1896, Republicans won half of their races where a Southerner was not on the ballot (going a dismal 4 for 11 between 1932 and 1976). When a Southerner made the ticket, the GOP prevailed 83.3 percent of the time, taking five of six races. The only GOP ticket to lose involved George Herbert Walker Bush, who was a New England Republican transplanted to Texas.

It is interesting to note that Republicans didn't put a Southerner on the ticket until 1980, but the strategy seemed to certainly pay off. Democrats didn't have one until 1928. This, of course, is likely due to the relatively small Southern population. But then again, many small Prairie and Midwestern states had their share of spots on the ticket. Perhaps it is the disparity of Democratic support in the South, leading both parties (especially the GOP) to take the region for granted until more recent years.

Even though the 2008 election isn't over, it isn't too early to think about 2012 and 2016. When a Southerner is atop the party's ticket, things look pretty good. Southern Democrat Presidential candidates have won five of seven races for a 71 percent success rate. For Republicans, three of four Southern presidential candidates have prevailed.