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Florida contests crucial to control of Congress

August 11, 2010 —

Florida has the largest number of competitive congressional contests in the South and among the highest in the nation. How close the GOP comes to the 40 seats it needs to take control of the US House of Representatives may well depend on the Sunshine State, not only on the four Democratic-held seats where the GOP is making serious challenges, but also on the two open Republican seats, where Democrats are making major efforts.  

Two Florida statewide races complicate the congressional picture. It is unclear how the three-way US Senate race will affect other contests on the ballot. Will the GOPers who vote for ex-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist (Ind.) in the Senate race go back to the Republican column in the congressional races? Will Democratic congressional candidates benefit from the support of independent voters who opt for Crist in the Senate battle? In addition, if wealthy political newcomer Rick Scott defeats long-time GOP officeholder Bill McCollum for the gubernatorial nomination, will that affect party unity and turn-out for congressional races? 

The Democrats have a similar problem. Should billionaire Jeff Greene, another political newcomer, win the Democratic US Senate primary, Senate candidate Kendrick Meek (D) has not agreed to support him. Could that hurt Democratic turn-out, especially among African-Americans, a key constituency for the party? 

These questions may be at least partly answered – or become irrelevant – by the August 24 primaries, for which absentee and early voting have already begun. 

Here’s a look at the four seats currently held by Democrats being hotly contested by the GOP, followed by the two open Republican-held seats. 

In the 2^nd District (Tallahassee, etc), seven-term Allen Boyd (D) has two obstacles to overcome before he can return to Congress in January. First, he must defeat state Sen. Al Lawson (D) in the Democratic Primary. Lawson, an African-American, is running to Boyd’s left. The district is 22 percent black, enough to give Lawson a boost in the primary. Obama has not endorsed Boyd, but the word is that his 2008 organization has gotten behind the incumbent. (While Obama’s endorsement might help Boyd in the primary, it could hurt him in the General Election; McCain won the district 54 percent to 45 percent in 2008.)

Moreover, Boyd has a huge financial advantage, with $1,060,000 on hand as of June 30 to Lawson’s $175,000. So a Boyd victory is likely in the primary, but Lawson could make a strong showing. In November, Boyd has another battle, facing the winner of the five-candidate Republican Primary.

The likely GOP nominee is Steve Southerland, a successful businessman (funeral homes) and civic leader. Southerland had $195,000 on hand midyear, not an overly impressive war chest; none of the other GOP contenders had as much as $50,000. Boyd’s final vote in favor of the healthcare bill, while likely to help him in the primary, is going to give him trouble in the General Election. “People are really angry at Boyd,” says a Tallahassee observer. “It will be his toughest race,” says another.

But Boyd has been out front on some key local issues, including efforts to help the oyster industry and bringing S-22 jets to Panama City. “People know and respect his moderate leadership,” says one insider (D). And in the past, Boyd has made the moderate label (54 percent liberal, 46 percent conservative, says the National Journal) work for him. Thus, Boyd has the edge again this year. Leaning Democratic. 

In the 8^th District (Orlando), freshman Alan Grayson (D), who edged out ethically-challenged US Ric Keller (R) in 2008 by 52 percent to 48 percent, has made a name for himself by making no-holds-barred attacks on conservative foes of healthcare reform and other key issues. Thus, the GOP has painted a large target on his back and nine hopefuls have lined up to snag the Republican nomination.

Four of the GOPers have raised more than $200,000. Bruce O’Donoghue, builder (transportation) and civic leader, has brought in some $528,000. Former leader of both the state House and state Senate Daniel Webster, with $241,000 raised, may have the most name ID, but he got in the race late, and many of his likely backers had already committed to O’Donoghue. State Rep. Kurt Kelly, who had raised $223,000, has been a conservative activist in and out of the legislature. And Todd Long, a lawyer and conservative talk-show host, raised $220,000; a Zogby Poll taken for Long showed him beating Grayson 46 percent to 38 percent. Long garnered 47 percent against Keller (R) in 2007. The politically active Associated Industries of Florida is endorsing two candidates, Webster and Kelly. In the General, it will be hard-fought – Grayson has more than $1.4 million on hand.

Democrats cite the increase in Democratic registration as favoring Grayson; indeed, Obama won this one 52 percent to 47 percent in 2008. One insider (D) says Boyd “hit a populist note in his district that people are responding to.” On balance, however, this one probably Leans Republican. 

In the 22^nd District (Boca Raton, etc.), the big surprise is that Republican challenger Allen West has surpassed two-term Ron Klein (D), one of the House’s best fundraisers, in money raised. (His fundraising is successful, contends one Democrat, because “he’s the poster boy for the rightwing movement.”) West has brought in almost $3.5 million to Klein’s nearly $2.4 million, although Klein has $2.9 million on hand to West’s nearly $2.2 million. The district is very competitive – Obama 52 percent in 2008; John Kerry 53 percent in 2004. West, an African-American, makes an impressive appearance and gets lots of media coverage. He also has considerable name ID since he got 45 percent against Klein in 2008. “Klein is in trouble,” says a lobbyist; “West has the opportunity to beat him.” Nevertheless, despite its pre-Klein Republican heritage, the district isn’t terribly conservative and West may trip on some of his very conservative views. Moreover, Klein has a long political record here, having served in both the Florida House and Senate. Leans Democratic. 

In the 24^th District (Orlando suburbs, etc.), freshman Suzanne Kosmas (D) is in big trouble, say some Republicans, mainly because of her vote for the healthcare reform legislation. But Democrats believe she’s built a strong foundation of constituent service; moreover, she’s not losing the money race, with some $1,265,000 on hand at midyear. Kosmas faces a non-threatening primary challenge from former Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka. The Republican Primary is highly competitive, with five candidates. The top money-raisers are former Ruth’s Chris Steak House executive Craig Miller with $326,000 on hand (much of it his own money); Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel, a Verizon executive, with $255,000; and state Rep. Sandy Adams, whose background includes a stint as a deputy sheriff, with $182,000. Miller has caught some flak for the position of the National Restaurant Association, which he chaired, in favor of a legalization process for illegal immigrants. The top three are trailed by attorney African American attorney Deon Long, and airline pilot Tom Garcia. McCain carried the district by a slim 51 percent-49 percent in 2008, but President Obama is less popular here than candidate Obama. Leans Republican. 

Although polls show it’s a Republican year, Democrats are making a major effort to gain two GOP seats in Florida. 

In the 12^th District (Lakeland, etc.), open due to the retirement of Adam Putnam (R), the favorite in the Republican Primary is state Rep. Dennis Ross. “It’s his to lose…,” says a lobbyist. “He’s got the entire Putnam campaign team running his campaign.” Ross is way ahead in the money-chase, with $791,000 raised to $12,000 for John Lindsey. Jr., Ross’s only Republican opponent. On the Democratic side, Lori Edwards, a three-term county commissioner, has raised $308,000 to $47,000 for former Naval Officer Doug Tudor. In a presumed Ross-Edwards race, Republican Ross would be the favorite in this district, where McCain edged Obama 50 percent to 49 percent (though Bush carried it with 58 percent in 2004). However, the presence of Tea Partier Randy Wilkinson, a three-term Polk County commissioner, on the November ballot could hurt the GOP, allowing Democrat Edwards to win. Indeed, an Edwards’ campaign poll shows her in first place with 35 percent, Ross with 32 percent and Wilkinson with 20 percent. However, all things considered this one Leans Republican. 

In the 25^th District (Miami), Mario Diaz-Balart has moved into the adjacent 21^st District (Miami) to seek the congressional seat previously occupied by his brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart, who is retiring. The leading Republican contender for the newly open 25^th District seat is state Rep. David Rivera, who has raised $1,227,000, more than six times as much as his two GOP primary opponents combined. In November, however, the race will even up considerably. Democrat Joe Garcia, who got 47 percent against Diaz-Balart in 2008, has raised $1,477,000. The district gave McCain a narrow 50 percent win in 2008 and, says an observer, “Obama doesn’t sell that well” in the district. Another source (D), however, says that Obama polls well among the district’s Hispanic voters and that polling for Garcia “is very positive.” Rivera, notes the observer, “is not a doctrinaire conservative. He’s a pragmatic politician, smart, practical, and gets along with everybody.” Marian Johnson of the Florida Chamber of Commerce comments that “this will be the most hard-fought General Election in the South. Both men will do whatever it takes.” Leans Republican.