Media wrong on Reed-McCain 'connection'.. Some factors to consider as McCain heads to Georgia
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
August 18, 2008 — The media’s take on Ralph Reed’s involvement in Monday’s John McCain fundraiser in Atlanta has been off the mark. As one of the most senior Republicans in the state put it: “This is Ralph trying to get back into the tent, not McCain wanting a new teepee,” a reference to Reed’s past issues concerning casinos and Indian reservations which came before a McCain-led committee in Congress.
Reed was the consultant on a movie entitled “Amendment VI,” which debuted just as the GOP caucuses and primaries were beginning in January of this year. A press kit to promo the film implored viewers not to vote until they had seen the movie. The few who did see the movie could spot in a moment’s notice that the documentary, the story of a Mormon in search of religious tolerance in America, was expected to be a Michael Moore-type opinion-turner in favor of the only Mormon in the GOP race—Mitt Romney. The credits in the movie prominently listed Reed as a consultant to the movie.
“I don’t think John McCain is begging for Ralph Reed’s help after he (Reed) was humiliated at the polls in his own state,” said a longtime GOP operative. (Reed ran for the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor of Georgia in 2006 and was defeated by a wide margin.)
National stories and Democratic leaders have taunted McCain for having Reed as part of his campaign effort. “They don’t get it,” said a former GOP leader. “McCain’s going to get the so-called evangelical vote, and Ralph doesn’t control what’s left of its organized version anyway.”
For his part, Reed has met great success with a recent fictional political thriller entitled “Dark Horse.” Most informed observers see the focus over Reed as “people living in the past news cycles who don’t realize a guy trying to stay relevant from a presidential candidate trying to grab hold of a political machinery that Reed no longer controls. “He knows Reed was part of that movie and it was to help defeat him (McCain) again in South Carolina and just because you raise a little money isn’t going to make that second round of attacks go away,” the former leader of Georgia’s GOP noted. The “second round” was a reference to Reed’s major role in defeating McCain in a bitter battle over South Carolina’s delegates in the 2000 presidential primary in that state.
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Meanwhile, as McCain travels to Georgia (the state -- not the nation) on Monday, there are several myths or misunderstandings that need to be dealt with related to the McCain effort in Georgia.
First, there is the issue of whether Georgia will be simply a donor state in terms of fundraising or, as the Obama camp has proclaimed, a state that is “up for grabs” in November.
Admittedly, our InsiderAdvantage polling, while consistently showing Sen. McCain with a lead over Sen. Obama, has indicated that the race is much closer in Georgia than have most other pollsters. Why?
First, there is the unique combination of a high youth vote and high African-American voting age population. An examination of exit polls in 2004 shows that of all of the Southern states considered even remotely competitive, Georgia has a larger percentage of voters under the age of 30 who vote than any of those other states. Additionally, Georgia has, by far, a higher percentage of African-American voters who vote than do the other “competitive Southern states.
Second, in survey after survey more voters in every state, including Georgia, say that when it comes to national politics, they identify with the Democratic Party over the Republicans. That means past weighting - upon which many of the pollsters are relying and which put Georgia as a Republican state by as many as 7-10 points - simply aren’t useful this year in weighting polling data.
Third, our survey of the parents of voters age 18-29 in every state we have polled consistently leads to a conclusion that, while these younger voters (who typically turn out at weaker levels than older voters) will not come crashing through the gates on election day as some might guess, they nevertheless are consistently estimated by their parents in poll after poll to be more active as compared to the past, perhaps at a level that is 22% to 25% higher.
The turnout among African-American voters in Georgia in 2004 was about 25%. Based on our surveys and an analysis of newly registered voters, we believe African-American turnout in Georgia in this election could reach 30% or higher.
Then there is the Bob Barr Factor. Our analysis shows that Barr takes away a net of about one percentage point from McCain for every 3 points he receives in a survey. Thus, a 4-to-5% showing by Barr in his home state would result in about a 2% net take-away from McCain should he perform at such levels.
Those analyzing Georgia should remember that John Kerry, who had little going for him in a pro-Bush state in 2004, received 42% of the vote. Many times people looking at the math of politics fail to recognize that for every percentage point one candidate gains, a point comes off of the other candidate. While Georgia should go McCain, the massive Obama grassroots effort in the state, Barr’s candidacy, and the state’s demographics put the state in play. And should Nunn receive the nomination, that rips the guts out of the newest emerging GOP areas in middle Georgia—home to onetime Democratic lawmaker and now Republican, governor, Sonny Perdue, who was an active Nunn supporter until the day the senator left office.
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