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Oklahoma: Two GOP congressional seats at risk

August 24, 2009 —

All but one of Oklahoma’s 77 counties went for John McCain in 2008, but Republicans face two problematic congressional elections in this usually safe GOP bailiwick.

In the 1^st District (Tulsa, etc.), US Rep. John Sullivan (R), now in his fourth term, aroused some hostility earlier this year when he announced he had a problem with alcohol and checked himself into the Betty Ford Clinic. He’s now out and back at work, but “his new weakness is inviting the type of political challenges not usually associated with a ‘safe seat,’ ” writes Charles Biggs, publisher of the Tulsa Beacon, a conservative weekly. Echoes University of Oklahoma political scientist Keith Gaddie, “People are not happy with him… It’s an issue for Republicans.” Sullivan has also caught some editorial flak from the Tulsa World’s Mike Jones for “catering to the mob” and “falling in with the conspiracy theorists” for some of his public comments about President Obama.

The 1^st is “definitely a district we’re taking a look at,” says Jessica Santillo, a  spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Although there is no Democratic candidate as yet, “we’re definitely trying to recruit somebody,” says Karina Henderson, communications director of the Oklahoma Democratic Party. One name that has been mentioned is that of Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, who is not seeking re-election to her current post. In addition to name ID and some political muscle from her service in city hall, Taylor is wealthy and could finance a strong campaign. Nevertheless, John McCain carried the 1^st District last year with 64% to Barack Obama’s 36%, giving any GOP nominee a built-in advantage, especially if Democrats are playing defense next year on Obama’s domestic proposals.

Sullivan could also get an opponent in the Republican Primary. Former state Sen. Scott Pruitt, an evangelical Christian and a political conservative, has been mentioned as a potential challenger. In a December 2001 special election, Pruitt garnered 23% in a five-person race ultimately won by Sullivan; in 2006, he made the runoff for lieutenant governor. He is the managing partner of the Oklahoma City Redhawks baseball team. (Pruitt, however, is also being pushed to run for Oklahoma attorney general.) Former state Sen. Jim Williamson has also gotten attention as a possible candidate.

Sullivan had $87,000 cash-on-hand at mid-year, not a good financial showing for someone who could face significant competition next year.

In the 5^th District (Oklahoma City, etc.), where two-term Mary Fallin (R) is stepping down next year to run for governor, the hottest rumor, though probably without a lot of merit, is that Oklahoma First Lady Kim Henry (D) will run for the seat. Paul Sund, a spokesman for Gov. Brad Henry’s office, tells SPR that “Kim Henry is focused on her duties as First Lady and executive director of the Sarkey’s Foundation and she has no plans to run for public office.” Should she eventually get in the race, the popular Mrs. Henry brings a background as an award-winning high school history teacher and as a major league civic activist. For now, however, speculation about her candidacy “is all chatter,” says Gaddie.

Two Republicans are already seeking the seat, which McCain carried by 59% to 41% last year. State Rep. Mike Thompson had $178,000 as of June 30; former state Rep. Kevin Calvey had $255,000. Many financial backers of Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett have contributed to Thompson, suggesting Cornett -- who lost the GOP runoff to Fallin in 2006 -- will not seek the seat himself.