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Florida chooses congressional nominees

August 27, 2008 —  

The results in yesterday’s Sunshine State congressional primaries hold some telling clues about what might happen in November. An unusually high number of Florida’s congressional races -- six or more -- will be highly competitive in the General Election in November. There are no runoffs in Florida primaries, so only a plurality is necessary to win the nomination.

Here are details on the results in key primary contests:

Republicans: xx-term US Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite received 49,111 votes (80%) to Jim King’s 12,228 (20%). She’s a favorite in November.

Democrats: John Russell won the Democratic nomination, with 16,889 (51%) to Carol Castagnero’s 12,840 (39%) and David “flag poll sitter” David Werder’s 3,530 (11%).

Republicans: Fourth term US Rep. Ric Keller turned back a primary challenger from conservative talk show host Todd Long, 22,170 votes (53%) to 19,623 (47%). Long ran to Keller’s right; although the incumbent is strongly conservative on social issues, he cast some liberal votes on economic and foreign policy issues. He also pledged to serve only four terms, and is seeking his fifth. The surprisingly close outcome suggests Keller could have problems in the General Election.  Keller was re-elected by a slim 53% in 2006.

Democrats: Wealthy lawyer Alan Grayson upset the favorite, 2006 nominee Charles Stuart, for the right to oppose Keller. Grayson had 16,065 (49%) to Stuart’s 9,117 (28%), while ex-assistant state attorney Mike Smith had 5,715 (17%), recent law school graduate Quoc Ba Van 1,212 (4%) and engineer James Fry 1,028 (3%).

Democrats: Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth won with 10,341 votes (47%) to 2006 nominee Samm Simpson’s 6,419 (29%) and financial planner Max Linn’s 5,401 (24%). The light Democratic turnout suggests that Hackworth will be a decided underdog to 38-year incumbent Bill Young (R), who was re-elected with 66% in 2006.

Both parties chose nominees to vie for the open seat created by the announced retirement of US Rep. Dave Weldon (R).

Republicans: State Sen. Bill Posey easily won the GOP nod, with 45,813 votes (77%) to 8,516 (14%) for Alan Bergman and 5,159 (9%) for Kevin Lehoullier. The much stronger turnout on the GOP side is a good omen for Posey.

Democrats: Physician Steve Blythe won a strong victory over airline pilot Paul Rancatore, a DCCC recruit who entered the race, then withdrew, then reentered. Blythe had 20,660 (65%) to Rancatore’s 11,019 (35%). Bush carried the district with 57% in 2006.

Republicans: In the race for the GOP nomination to oppose freshman Tim Mahoney (D) in this normally Republican district, former prosecutor and Pittsburgh Steelers heir Tom Rooney won with an unexpectedly slim margin. Rooney had 20,608 votes (37%) to state Rep. Gayle Harrell’s 19,603 (35%) and Palm Beach Gardens Councilman Hal Valeche’s 15,896 (28%). Prior to the vote, Rooney was the heavy favorite, garnering the endorsement of popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) as well as some national GOP powers-that-be. Mahoney slipped into office in 2006 with a mere 50% to 48% victory, even though his opponent’s name was not on the ballot and voters had to cast a ballot for disgraced ex-Congressman Mark Foley (R) to vote for the GOP’s official nominee, Joe Negron.

Republicans: Third-termer Tom Feeney (R), whose ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff have been questioned, easily turned back a challenge from Jason Davis, but since Davis is a political newcomer, his total probably reflects Republican dissatisfaction with Feeney, not a good sign. Feeney had 27,021 (77%) to Davis 8,273 (23%).

Democrats: Former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas won an impressive victory over

2006 candidate Clint Curtis, 18,664 (72%) to 7.129 (28%). However, that Curtis, considered a loose cannon by much of the Democratic hierarchy, ran as well as he did may prove troublesome to Kosmas.