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North Carolina: Parties Go Toe to Toe

September 22, 2008 — The Tar Heel State is usually reliably Republican in federal elections -- for president and US Senate -- and equally Democratic in state politics, i.e., for governor. This year, however, the state is up for grabs in all three contests.

The latest presidential poll shows a squeaker: McCain 48%, Obama 47%. The survey was taken Sept. 14 -16, in the midst of the Wall Street meltdown, by Opinion Research Corp. for CNN and Time magazine.

Last week, Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden was in Charlotte on Sunday and Barack Obama was there this Sunday. Michelle Obama has made at least three appearances across the state in the past ten days. “It’s fair to say that the Obama campaign is striving mightily to keep North Carolina in play,” says Ferrell Guillory, Director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, a long-time political journalist as well as an academician. And he adds that “One tip off [the state] is in play is that the McCain campaign is advertising here. This is unusual. North Carolina hasn’t seen two-party activity on this scale since 1992” when Bill Clinton challenged the first President Bush.

In the US Senate race between high-profile incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) and challenger state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), Dole “is in a much tougher race than they wanted or expected,” says a GOP insider. “I think she’ll win, but they’re in a scrap.” The latest Elon Poll, taken September 15-18, shows each candidate with 35%. The poll also showed that Dole’s approval rating declined 22 points since Elon’s April survey. In response, says the GOPer, the Dole campaign has “sharpened up their attacks, for example, about Kay Hagan owning an oil well.” Hagan is more critical of US trade policy, calling for “fair trade” that includes “respecting important labor and environmental regulations.”

In a change from many previous campaigns in a presidential year, state Democrats are not running away from their national ticket. For example, Hagan appeared with Michelle Obama on one of her campaign stops. Moreover, much of Hagan’s campaign is funded by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), to the tune of at least $2.4 million, a sign that the national party is taking her bid seriously.

In the governor’s race, there’s a another close contest, with the Elon Poll giving Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) 37%, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) 35%. “Pat McCrory is in a better spot than any Republican candidate has been in many years,” says the GOP insider, a sentiment echoed by Guillory, who told SPR, “McCrory has proved that he is as strong a candidate for governor for the Republicans at least since Jim Martin (governor from 1985 to 1993).” But, adds the GOPer, “The Democrats will fight tooth and nail to hold on to the governor’s mansion.”

Polls show that the economy is the number one national and state issue among North Carolinians. The precise impact of the Wall Street collapse on the Tar Heel State is uncertain, however. So far, none of the nationwide banking firms headquartered in the state has failed; indeed, several, such as Charlotte’s Bank of America, which purchased Merrill-Lynch, are likely to gain. Another Charlotte bank, Wachovia, may also purchase one of the ailing financial giants. These developments could boost the Tar Heel economy. However, after Hurricane Ike, gasoline prices in the state spiked as much as $1.00 a gallon in a single day, something virtually every voter noticed immediately.