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Georgia: Chambliss a Slam Dunk or Martin a Sleeper?

September 24, 2008 — The conventional wisdom is almost without dissent among Peach State political insiders: US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is headed for re-election this November with little or no problem. Despite some factors that suggest Chambliss’ challenger, former legislator Jim Martin, may do better than expected, the expectation that Chambliss will win is strongly rooted. “I wouldn’t call it a blow-out,” says one long-time observer of Peach State politics, “but I’m not aware of anybody that thinks Martin is going to win.”

For starters, Chambliss, who has been in the Senate nearly six years and was in congress for eight years before that, and has not gotten cross-ways with the voters on any major issues. In addition, his campaign war chest has been overflowing, while Martin has been campaigning on a shoe string. In the June 30 financial reports, Chambliss had $4,082,000 on hand to Martin’s $176,000. Granted Martin had just finished one primary and was headed into the runoff, but there’s little evidence big bucks have come his way in the last couple of months. He has begun to advertise on television, however, attacking Chambliss for supporting Bush’s economic policies. In addition, he holds weekly news conferences at his headquarters. As for Chambliss, he’s been running ads, with a mostly positive message, for weeks.

Chambliss, however, is not a known quantity in Metro-Atlanta, where he is viewed as “the agriculture senator,” representing mainly South Georgia (Sen. Johnny Isakson [R] is considered “the Atlanta senator.”) But Martin is unlikely to carry Metro-Atlanta, though he may come close. Chambliss is expected to run extremely well in the rural/small town areas outside of Metro-Atlanta.

In Martin’s favor, he has significant name ID from his unsuccessful campaign (42%) for lieutenant governor in 2006. There has also been a substantial increase in voter registration among African Americans, who almost all Democrats. And Barack Obama, while he isn’t favored to carry Georgia, is running surprisingly well in the state in a number of opinion polls. In the Real Clear Politics average for Georgia during 2008, McCain had 50%, Obama 44%. Although Obama has recently ceased running TV spots in the state, he still has a number of local headquarters up and running around the state, and his ground organization continues to get high-marks. For example, the Obama campaign has an organized effort, noted by SPR’s Tom Baxter, to take advantage of the state’s early voting law, which allowed voters to cast ballots beginning September 22. If Obama should pull an upset in Georgia -- not likely but possible -- it would benefit Martin.

Moreover, polls on the Senate race haven’t all been one-sided. A Rasmussen poll released September 18 showed Chambliss with 50%, Martin with 43%, a significant but not impressive lead for incumbent Chambliss, and a poll taken for Martin by the Mellman Group (D) August 6-10 showed Chambliss with 42%, Martin 36%. However, a SurveyUSA poll released on September 17 showed Chambliss with 53% to Martin’s 36%, with 8% for Libertarian Allen Buckley, an impressive 17 point lead for Chambliss. (Buckley has little money and is running radio ads only; if history is any guide, his support will decline sharply, perhaps by half, by Election Day, significant only if the election is very close.)

There are unconfirmed reports that the Democrats plan to attack Chambliss for his role in a US Senate hearing on the sugar refinery explosion in Savannah in which 13 workers were killed. Some observers felt that Chambliss stuck up for the Imperial Sugar Company, rather than a whistle-blower who had reportedly warned company officials early on of potential safety problems. So far, however, the attack has not materialized.