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Kentucky: McConnell in Trouble

September 29, 2008 — The highest ranking Republican in the US Senate is in a tough battle for re-election. Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell (R), the Senate Minority Leader and long a powerhouse in both the US Senate and in his state’s politics, barely leads his Democratic challenger, businessman Bruce Lunsford, 46% to 45% -- a virtual tie -- according to the Bluegrass Poll, a survey taken for the Louisville Courier-Journal by Mason-Dixon September 22-25. Without “leaners,” the poll was even-steven, 41% each. The Bluegrass Poll came on the heels of a SurveyUSA poll, taken September 21 and 22, giving McConnell a slim lead of 46%-43%

The very close race is a reversal of earlier surveys, which found that McConnell, benefiting from the popularity of his fellow Republican John McCain, had a big lead over Lunsford. But although McCain is still comfortably ahead in Kentucky, his strength has diminished as recent economic developments have taken center stage. It’s now McCain 53%, Obama 41% in Kentucky, says the Bluegrass Poll, a 12-point lead, down from early August surveys which showed McCain with leads of 18 to 20 points.

The recent bankruptcies, buy-outs and bail-outs, coming on top of high gasoline prices, rising unemployment and other economic problems in this relatively poor state, are fueling the distinct shift to the Democrats. Kentucky’s unemployment rate was 6.8% for August, somewhat above the national rate of 6.1% and up from 5.5% in the state for the same month a year ago. Moreover, the jobless rate rose in 112 of the state’s 120 counties. Lowell Reese, editor of the Kentucky Gazette, says “With this economy being like it is and it not being a Republican year, six out of ten people are focused on the economy, and that’s where McConnell is losing ground.” 

Al Cross, a long-time Kentucky political columnist, adds “The McConnell people are legitimately worried that this could turn into a nationwide landslide.” Indeed, in the South, with the Kentucky race now added to US Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) tough race in North Carolina, look for increasingly close US Senate contests in Mississippi, where US Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), and even in Texas, where US Sen. John Cornyn (R) is getting a feisty-but-underfunded challenge from state Rep. Rick Noriega (D). Democratic candidates in other Southern senate and congressional races could also see improved numbers in the near future.

Why has the Kentucky Senate race gotten so tight so quick, we asked a Lunsford operative? “It’s Bush’s problems,” he said, “and McConnell’s close links to Bush. The economy being so sour, the social issues are not working any more” with many lower and middle income voters. He adds that “Lunsford has pitched himself as a successful businessman who knows the economy and how to create jobs… Lunsford is a much better candidate than he’s been in the past. He has [former rival US Rep. Ben] Chandler (D-KY) supporting him, as well as the governor, former governors and the labor unions.” He concludes, “There’s a conversion of circumstances that give Lunsford’s candidacy a real, real chance of [duplicating] what happened to [former Senate Majority Leader Tom] Daschle (D-SD),”  who was defeated in an upset in 2004.

Lunsford is also getting some national help. Hillary Clinton, who carried Kentucky’s presidential primary by a 35-point margin, was in the state twice last week campaigning with Lunsford and handing out buttons that read “Hillary Sent Me” for volunteers to wear while they campaign for Obama, Lunsford and other Democratic candidates (2012 anyone?).

Despite the recent Democratic trend, the Republican presidential nominee, as noted above, is still popular in the state. Recognizing this, Lunsford aired a TV spot that highlighted McCain’s opposition to corruption and his one-time criticism of McConnell on ethics. (The ad portrayed McCain so positively that one wag said it should count as an in-kind contribution from Lunsford to McCain.) Says Cross, “One-fourth of the [Kentucky] Democrats cannot bring themselves to vote for [Obama], but they’ve got to vote against somebody, and Mitch is not loved.”

McConnell still has plenty going for him. Lunsford may be rich, but McConnell is a superb fundraiser, with $9,136,000 on hand at mid-year to Lunsford’s $1,341,000 (though there’s plenty more where that came from, and perhaps even some national Democratic money on the way). The Republican leader has also been in the Senate 24 years and has done favors for thousands of people across the state, from the top to the bottom of the socio-economic scale. Finally, he has long been recognized as a highly skilled political strategist, who generally gets credit for Kentucky’s move toward the GOP over the past decade or so. “McConnell will probably try in his ads to tie Lunsford and Obama together,” says Reese.

The campaign has already been contentious. In a mid-September debate, reported the Courier-Journal, McConnell accused Lunsford of not even having “newspaper knowledge” about foreign policy, while Lunsford charged McConnell with being part of a “corrupt” and “do-nothing” Congress.

Whether the close race will actually end up in a Lunsford victory is anybody’s guess. “I think the electorate is simply volatile,” says Cross. “I would still say that the chances of [McConnell] getting beat are one in four,” says Cross, “but I was saying one in five a week ago.” And Reese says, “Bruce has to be the underdog, given McConnell’s success over the years, and the fact that McCain is doing as well as he’s doing… In my gut, I expect McConnell will probably win, but he’s going to have to be looking over his shoulder.”