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Louisiana: Does Cao have a chance?

September 30, 2009 — Last year in a special election in Louisiana’s 2^nd District (New Orleans, etc.), freshman Anh “Joseph” Cao (R) defeated indicted (later convicted) nine-term US Rep. Bill Jefferson (D). Cao, a Vietnamese refugee, scored the upset (50% to 47%) in large part as a reaction to Jefferson’s on-going legal problems. Next year, however, Republican Cao, who has perceptively called himself the Democrats’ number one target, is a sitting duck for the opposition party.

Two state representatives, Cedric Richmond and Juan Lafonta, have already announced they will seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Cao.

Richmond, 35, “is a much stronger candidate,” says a longtime Democratic operative. Richmond is chairman of the Louisiana House Judiciary Committee and serves on the Ways and Means Committee. He gained name recognition across the district when he ran in 2008, coming in third -- with 18% -- and missing the runoff. In that race, he was “pretty organized and raised some money ($296,000).”

Lafonta was elected to the Louisiana House in 2005, representing the heart of the city, including the French Quarter and other neighborhoods. He was the first freshman elected chairman of the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus. He is well known in his legislative district, but will have to become known throughout the congressional district.

“I keep thinking somebody else will jump in the race,” says the Democratic operative. One factor influencing the paucity of contenders is the mayoral election coming up in January. “There is no focus on it right now,” says Dr. Silas Lee, a New Orleans political consultant; “the mayor’s race is about to start.” Some politicos are wavering between a race for mayor and the congressional race. Karen Carter Peterson, who ran against Jefferson in 2006, announced that she will forgo a mayoral race. It is doubtful that Peterson will run for Congress, but she would be a strong candidate, notes the operative. And some contenders who run for mayor but don’t win, may use the municipal race as a springboard to a congressional bid.

Cao is making a valiant effort to win re-election. After a spate of publicity focusing on his unexpected victory and his status as the first Vietnamese American elected to Congress, he began work on every freshman’s number one goal: Getting re-elected. He has done a good job raising money and had $339,000 on hand as of June 30. He has straddled the fence on some issues, attempting to please both his party and the Democratic majority in his district. In particular, observers are watching his upcoming vote on health care reform. He praised Obama for speaking to school students and reportedly gets along well with the White House.

To win, it will be necessary for Cao to attract a number of black votes. The district is 60% black and Obama got 75% of the vote here. He has several African Americans on his congressional staff and has recently been on New Orleans radio stations that target black listeners. In spite of Cao’s efforts to win black support, he has little visible support among African Americans. “No one has picked it up yet; it’s probably isolated,” says Lee, a close observer of the area’s African-American community. He notes that Cao received “limited black support last time,” in the special election in which black turn-out was low and white turn-out high.

“I don’t see how [Cao] can win again,” says the Democratic operative. “It is what it is.”  He adds that African-Americans, with a limited number of districts nationally in which they can count on winning, “are pretty determined to take that seat back.” Moreover, the district is filled with ambitious politicians -- almost all Democrats -- as well as a number of active political organizations. So next year, there is no way Cao can sneak up on unsuspecting Democrats. However, he does get an “A” for effort.