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McCain-Palin Helps Dixie GOPers

September 5, 2008 — John McCain’s stirring address to the Republican Convention in St. Paul, on top of the exciting and impressive performance by running mate Sarah Palin the night before, have set the stage for a hotly contested and very likely close presidential election in November. The initially truncated but ultimately full-fledged Republican Convention may or may not have set the stage for a GOP victory, but it did motivate the base and set the agenda for a McCain-Palin campaign based on change and reform, not more of the same.

Whether the ticket can win in November is still very unclear, but what is clear is that the McCain and Palin performances strengthened the prospects for all Republican candidates in the South. The GOP base, in Dixie as elsewhere, is undoubtedly smaller than it was four years ago. Nevertheless, it is still a powerful force South of the Mason-Dixon Line, where a majority of the voters are conservative on three fronts -- social issues, the economy and foreign policy. All three buttons were pushed, one way or another, at this convention.

This week’s convention was especially helpful to Republican candidates in statewide and congressional races in Dixie, including some endangered incumbents. Although Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats have made impressive inroads in the South in recent months, the outpouring of persuasive right-of-center rhetoric from St. Paul this week -- from Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Lindsey Graham as well as from John McCain and Sarah Palin -- is likely to resonate with Dixie voters just as it did with the GOP faithful in the conventional hall.

McCain may not be young and telegenic -- like Palin and Obama -- but he delivered a stirring speech that gave every Republican, and some independents, a laundry list of reasons to vote for him for president. His strong emphasis on military preparedness resonates well in the South, a region filled with military bases, a tribute to the committee chairmanships held by Southerners -- first Democrats and later Republicans. Moreover, McCain’s personal heroism in the Vietnam War, as well as the fact that he’s also the son and grandson of admirals, are significant plusses in the South.  

McCain also made clear his commitment to his pro-life stance and enunciated policies on energy, trade, low taxes and job training designed to help a waffling economy. His closing -- a grand finale that brought the entire convention to its feet cheering for nearly five minutes -- was the strongest ending to a speech I’ve ever heard. His strong performance makes him a natural to campaign persuasively in Florida and Virginia, the two most marginal Southern states in this election.

Palin, however, could turn out to be the Republican rock star for this campaign. As my colleague Tom Baxter has written, she’s so far North she’s Southern. Her down-home, small-town conservatism, replete with thumb-your-nose zingers aimed at the Eastern media and the Washington elite, was the same kind of defensive rhetoric Southerners have been sending North for more than 150 years. My guess is that she will be much in demand in the South during the campaign, especially to help Republicans in such competitive races as US Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) unexpectedly close contest in North Carolina, US Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R) potentially difficult race in Mississippi, and in challenger John N. Kennedy’s (R) bid to unseat US Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in Louisiana, all states where staunch conservatives represent a substantial share of the electorate.

And if the polls should tighten in Kentucky and Texas Senate contests, either McCain or Palin will probably be asked to appear for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and US Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Both McConnell and Cornyn are strong favorites, but some of their poll numbers over the past few months have been tepid. If Palin does go to Kentucky, look for her to speak in Louisville, where she can boost former US Rep. Anne Northup (R), who is making a long-shot -- but well-financed -- effort to unseat freshman John Yarmuth (D), as well as help McConnell.

In North Carolina, McCain has only a small lead over Obama, and McCain and Palin could do quadruple duty, helping the GOP presidential ticket carry the state, Dole get re-elected Senator, Republican Pat McCrory win his strong campaign for governor, and five-term US Rep. Robin Hayes (R) survive a strong challenge in the competitive 8^th District (Concord, etc.).

McCain may not want to spend time in Alabama, where he has a prohibitive lead over Obama, but Palin could be a substantial help rallying Republican voters in the state’s three very competitive congressional contests.

Although McCain will certainly campaign effectively in Florida, Palin could assist the GOP there as well, not so much because of her conservative views, but because of her fresh and feisty demeanor on the stump. The Sunshine State will be crucial to a McCain victory. In addition, however, there are a number of very close congressional races, mostly where Democrats have a shot at winning a GOP-held seat. So don’t be surprised to see the far-Northwesterner Palin making major campaign stops in the nation’s most Southeastern state.