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GOP set for big congressional gains in Dixie

September 7, 2010 —

With almost two months to go before the November 2 election, SPR now projects that in the 13-state South, the GOP will net between 11 and 25 congressional seats currently held by Democrats. We project that 12 Democratic seats will be taken over by the GOP; however, at least one Democratic victory in a GOP-held district will shift the net Republican gain to 11 new seats. In addition, we rate another 10 Democratic-held seats as tossups, a category in which a number of Republican victories are likely. And we rate another 3 Democratic seats as either leaning or likely Democratic, but not safe for the Democrats. So the likelihood is that the number of Southern seats that switch to the GOP will be significantly higher than 11. In 1994, the last time a Republican wave gave the GOP a House majority, these Southern states netted the GOP 20 new seats. 

These projections come in the wake of a series recent political omens pointing toward historic Republican gains. The most recent Gallup Poll showed 51 percent of registered voters plan to vote Republican for Congress this year, to 41 percent who plan to vote Democratic. This ten-point gap is the largest in the GOP’s favor Gallup has found since 1942. In addition, Gallup found 54 percent of Republicans have given “quite a lot” or “some” thought to the upcoming congressional contests, compared with 30 percent of Democrats. Gallup regards this as a key indicator of turnout. The latest Rasmussen generic ballot shows 48 percent plan to vote Republican for Congress to 36 percent planning to vote for a Democrat, and the latest CNN survey gives Republicans 52 percent, Democrats 45 percent. And Curtis Gans of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate, reports that for the first time since 1930, more Republicans turned out to vote in primaries for statewide offices than Democrats.  

The most significant development indicating a GOP high tide, however, is the growing number of once-safe Democratic districts that have recently popped up on the political radar screen as competitive, including Georgia 8, Kentucky 3 and North Carolina 11. 

Democrats do have several factors in their favor. Democratic freshmen and other potentially vulnerable incumbents anticipated tough challenges this year and began raising money shortly after the 2008 election. Thus, most of them are well-funded. In addition, a number of Democratic campaigns are benefiting from negative research on GOP candidates, generated by partisan sources or the media, that have uncovered bankruptcies, hidden loans and questions about misuse of expense accounts While black turnout usually declines in non-presidential years, many Southern districts have a large percentage of African Americans that could prevent some Republican victories. And in some cases, intra-party tensions could hurt the GOP, for example, Tea Party independent candidacies in Virginia 2, Virginia 5 and Florida 12.  

Nevertheless, national forecasters are beginning to project that the GOP will net a large number of new congressional seats this November. Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia’s political guru, last week predicted that Republicans will gain 47 seats in the House, more than the 40 needed to attain a majority. The Cook Report, another national forecaster, says the GOP will gain at least 40 and rates another 40 Democratic seats as “at substantial risk.” 

Here are summaries of the races in Democratic-held seats that could change parties in November, followed by a much shorter list of Republican-held seats that are potentially vulnerable. In a forthcoming article, we will look at five US House districts now held by Republicans where Democratic victories might happen. 

(Where possible, we have relied on independent voter surveys, rather than those taken for candidates, which are more prone to bias.)

Alabama 2 (Montgomery, etc.) Freshman Bobby Bright (D) is fighting a hard-charging, well-financed battle to ward off a strong challenge from Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R). Moderate Bright has the Chamber of Commerce endorsement, unusual for a vulnerable Democrat. A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll, taken for the DCCC August 23-26, gave Bright 52 percent, Roby 43 percent. Roby could, but may not, pull it out. Tossup. 

Arkansas 1 (Jonesboro, etc.) Incumbent Marion Berry (D) retired and there’s a major battle between ex-Berry staffer Chad Causey (D), who is benefiting from the help of Berry as well as from former President Bill Clinton, and rancher/farm radio commentator Rick Crawford (R). Causey edged out a more conservative Democrat, some of whose supporters might be end up in the Crawford column. However, recent revelations about past Crawford bankruptcies may have slowed his momentum. A Hendrix College poll on August 17 gave Crawford 48 percent, Causey 17 percent. Leaning Republican. 

Arkansas 2 (Little Rock, etc.) US Rep. Vic Snyder (D) is retiring and state Sen. Joyce Elliot (D) faces ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin (R). Elliot is probably too liberal for voters here this year. A Hendrix College poll on August 17 gave Griffin 52 percent, Elliot 35 percent. Likely Republican. 

Florida 2 (Tallahassee, etc.) Seven-term US Rep. Allen Boyd (D) barely survived a primary (51 percent-49 percent) against African-American state House Minority Leader Al Lawson (D). Now Boyd faces businessman (funeral homes) and civic leader Steve Southerland (R). Lawson, bitter against Democratic Big Mules who backed Boyd in the primary, is backing independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist, throwing a monkey wrench into Democratic/black turnout efforts. Moreover, this is a conservative district – McCain got 54 percent here in 2008. And although Boyd has a moderate record, he did vote for the healthcare bill. Leans Republican. 

Florida 8 (Orlando, etc.) Outspoken freshman Alan Grayson (D), who edged out a weak GOPer 52 percent-48 percent in 2008, faces a strong challenge from ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster (R) in this GOP-leaning district. A Public Policy Polling survey (D) taken August 23-25 gave Grayson 40 percent, Webster 27 percent. Webster’s prominence (he’s been the top guy in both state legislative chambers) and high name ID, combined with Grayson’s contentious manner and the prevailing winds, spell trouble for the incumbent. Leans Republican. 

Florida 22 (Boca Raton, etc.) Two-term Ron Klein (D) had a surprisingly close race – 54.7 percent – in 2008 and this year has a rematch against retired military officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West (R), who is now much better financed than before. Until Klein won the seat in 2006, the GOP had held the seat for 26 years. Tossup.                        

Florida 24 (Orlando suburbs, etc.) Freshman Suzanne Kosmas (D)       is facing a tough race with state Rep. Sandy Adams (R), a former deputy sheriff. Kosmas has the money advantage, but Adams is a skilful politician and Obama is weaker here now than when he lost the district 49 percent-51 percent. Moreover, Kosmas is catching flak for voting for healthcare reform. Leans Republican. 

Georgia 2 (Albany, etc.) Nine-term Sanford Bishop (D) should be okay in this 47 percent black district, but this year state Rep. Mike Keown (R) is waging a well-financed challenge in a district that occasionally votes Republican. In 2004, for example, George W. Bush, squeezed out a 50 percent to 49.6 percent victory over John Kerry within the district’s current boundaries, though Obama got 54 percent in 2008. The black vote usually declines sharply in a non-presidential year – 46 percent of turnout in 2008, but 38 percent in 2006. Bishop, who usually gets significant white support, may be losing a lot of it over his vote for “Obamacare.” A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll taken for Keown in early August gave Bishop 50 percent, Keown 44 percent. Leans Democratic. 

Georgia 8 (Macon, etc.) Four-termer Jim Marshall (D) looked problem-free for months, then he got a foe with credentials in state Rep. Austin Scott (R), a somewhat maverick lawmaker (one of the few GOPers to favor a non-Confederate state flag) and the national mood started to make itself felt in this district where McCain beat Obama 56 percent-43 percent. The near-solidly Democratic black vote here was 33 percent of turnout in 2008, but 25 percent in 2006. An American Viewpoint (R) poll taken in late August for Scott gave Marshall 44 percent, Scott 39 percent. Another poll gave Marshall 50 percent, Scott 45 percent. Scott is getting hit for state legislative votes for tax hikes. The district gave McCain 57 percent in 2008 and though Marshall voted against healthcare, he’s got a fight on his hands. Tossup.

Kentucky 3 (Louisville) Two-term John Yarmuth (D) looked like a shoo-in against UPS pilot and Iraq, Afghan war veteran Todd Lally (R), then the Louisville Courier-Journal (D) commissioned a poll among likely voters from SurveyUSA. Yarmuth had 47 percent, Lally 45 percent. A recent Yarmuth survey shows him up by double-digits. Lally, with Tea Party support, defeated an establishment candidate in the primary, which may – or may not – give him problems. The GOP held this seat before Yarmuth won in 2006. Tossup. 

Kentucky 6 (Lexington, etc.) Three-term Ben Chandler (D), scion of a famous political name here, is in a tighter than expected race with attorney and constitutional law instructor Andy Barr (R), who is getting a lot of business support and raising a lot of money, but is getting hit for his services to former Gov. Ernest Fletcher (R) during his scandal-plagued administration. A late July survey by Braun Research showed Chandler with 46 percent, Barr with 32 percent, not that strong for Barr but weak for incumbent Chandler. Rand Paul’s (R) growing strength – 55 percent to 40 percent, in the latest SurveyUSA poll – in the US Senate race should also help Barr. Tossup.  

Louisiana  3 (Morgan City, etc.) In this open seat left vacant by US Rep. Charlie Melancon’s (D) US Senate bid, attorney Jeff Landry (R), who lost a recent state senate bid by 49 percent-50 percent against an incumbent, won the hotly contested GOP primary this year and is favored to defeat Princeton graduate and lawyer Ravi Sangisetty (D), 28, who had nevertheless raised an impressive $610,000 by mid-year. Likely Republican. 

Mississippi 1 (Tupelo, etc.) Travis Childers (D), completing his first full term and before that a well-liked county officeholder, is fighting the GOP tide in a district that McCain carried 62 percent to 38 percent. As important, Childers has a well-financed, well-known, politically experienced challenger in state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R). At mid-year, Childers had raised $1,321,000, but Nunnelee had brought in $899,000 – a lot for a challenger. Moreover, the leading GOPers reached a pre-primary agreement and avoided a divisive intra-party battle. An August 30-September 1 Anazalone (D) poll gave Childers 46 percent, Nunnelee 41 percent. Before Childers, whose victory in a special election in May 2008 signaled coming Democratic gains across the South, the district had a Republican congressman. Leans Republican. 

North Carolina 8 (Concord, etc.) Freshman Larry Kissell (D) faces GOP primary winner Harold Johnson (R), who has name ID from a stint as a TV sportscaster. Kissell’s funding is adequate; so is Johnson’s. Johnson’s rough-and-tumble primary may give him trouble. Obama got 52 percent here in this 28 percent black district. Leans Republican. 

North Carolina 11 (Asheville, etc.) Second-termer Heath Shuler (D) has followed a somewhat conservative path on key votes, but that may not have insulated him from a close race in this once-Republican district. Moreover, liberal Democrats in the district gave his May 4 primary opponent 39 percent, which may affect Democratic enthusiasm for Shuler. Businessman (drycleaning) Jeff Miller won a hotly contested six-candidate GOP primary and as of June 30 was woefully underfunded ($65,000 on hand). But a late July SurveyUSA poll gave Shuler 45 percent, Miller 44 percent. And Miller’s fundraising has since picked up. “It’s a cheap media market,” notes one GOP operative. Tossup. 

South Carolina 5 (Rock Hill, etc.) Fourteen-termer John Spratt (D) is in his most difficult reelection battle since 1994, facing a well-financed foe in state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), who is striving to connect the influential Democrat – he chairs the House Budget Committee – to the Obama Administration. Obama got 46 percent here in 2008 and is less popular now. A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll taken for Mulvaney in late July showed the two tied, 46 percent each. One factor in Mulvaney’s favor is that Republican voters are moving into the district – a spillover from Charlotte, NC’s suburbs – and could offset Spratt’s strength among rural voters. Leans Republican. 

Tennessee 4 (Sewannee, etc.) Four-term Lincoln Davis (D) has been facing run-of-the-mill battles in recent years, but this year the moderate (52 percent liberal, 48 percent conservative, says National Journal) lawmaker has a fight on his hands. His biggest problem is that his district gave Obama a mere 35 percent of the vote in 2008, and the President’s popularity has declined since then. Davis faces physician Scott DesJarlais (R), who attacks the “socialist” agenda of the Obama Administration. DesJarlais moved here from South Dakota 17 years ago and Davis contends that 85 percent of the district’s voters were, like Davis, born here. Thus, he knows how to represent them. Top GOPers believe Davis is vulnerable and are campaigning for DesJarlais. “The (poll) numbers are surprisingly close,” contends a GOP operative. Tossup.                                   

Tennessee 6 (Murfreesboro, etc.) State Sen. Diane Black (R) and primary runner-up Lou Ann Zelenik (R) still haven’t made nice, but Black is still favored over lawyer Brett Carter (D) in this suburban district, kept Democratic in recent years by the political skills of retiring US Rep. Bart Gordon (D). Likely Republican. 

Tennessee 8 (Jackson, etc.) State Sen. Roy Herron (D) is waging a       hard-fought, well-financed race to keep this open seat in Democratic hands, but gospel singer and successful farmer Steve Fincher (R), despite accusations of concealing some loans and assets from his campaign finance report, appears the stronger contender this year. A poll taken for Fincher by the Tarrance Group (R) August 10-11 gave Fincher 47 percent, Herron 37 percent. Leans Republican. 

Texas 17 (Waco, etc.) Ten-termer Chet Edwards (D) has another fight on his hands, this time against businessman (oil and gas) Bill Flores (R). While Edwards had much more cash at mid-year, all-told Flores had raised an impressive $1,616,000. An OnMessage (R) poll taken for Flores last May showed him with 53 percent to Edwards’ 41 percent. The GOP has been working hard on this one. Tossup. 

Texas 23 (San Antonio, etc.) Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (D) is getting a tougher-than-usual challenge from banker Quico Canseco (R), whose mid-August OnMessage poll showed him with a 43 percent to 37 percent lead. Canseco is raising money, much of it borrowed, and getting attacked as favoring privatization of Social Security. This 65 percent Latino district may or may not be that open to the GOP this year. Leans Democratic.            

Virginia 2 (Virginia Beach, etc.) Freshman Glenn Nye (D) is in an uphill battle against car dealer Scott Rigell (R) in this competitive district (Obama 51 percent, McCain 49 percent). Nye is stressing veterans’ issues and his efforts to keep an aircraft carrier berthed here. A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll in mid-June gave Rigell 41 percent, Nye 35 percent and Tea Partier Kenny Golden, a retired Navy Commodore and former Virginia Beach GOP chair, 4 percent. Leans Republican.  

Virginia 5 (Charlottesville, etc.) Freshman Tom Perriello (D) is in big trouble as he battles against state Sen. Robert Hurt (R). Although he appeared at more town hall meetings in his district than almost any other Democrat, a mid-July SurveyUSA poll showed Hurt ahead 58 percent to 35 percent; a July 28-August 1 poll taken by Ayers, McHenry (R) poll gave Hurt 49 percent,  Perriello 43 percent. Likely Republican.  

Virginia 9 (Abingdon, etc.) Fourteen-termer Rick Boucher (D) has a much tougher than usual challenge, this time from state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R). A WDBJ-TV poll in late July showed Boucher with a 52 percent-39 percent lead. However, the mountainous “Fighting Ninth” has a long history of upsets and Griffith is both prominent and reasonably well-funded. Tossup.            

Virginia 11 (Fairfax County, etc.). Freshman Gerald Connolly (D) is in a spirited rematch with businessman (security systems) Keith Fimian (R). Some folks believe Fimian is too conservative on social issues for this suburban Washington district. Fimian is also getting hit for past tax liens. However, before 2008, the district had a long-running Republican era. Fimian got 43 percent in 2008. Leans Democratic.