The survey weights the total percentage of the vote as it relates to African-Americans at slightly over 33%, and the percentage of female voters higher than that of male voters. The survey includes landline and mobile phone responses. The margin of error is 2.9% with a 95% confidence level. Crosstabs are at the bottom of the page.
The results of the poll:
Nathan Deal: 44%
Jason Carter: 40%
Andrew Hunt: 7%
David Perdue: 50%
Michelle Nunn: 40%
Amanda Swafford: 5%
Analysis of the Results:
InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:
“This race remains competitive, partially due to the high percentage of the vote the Libertarian candidate (Hunt) is receiving. That number is usually high at this stage of a race and will likely drop closer to the election.
“Based on these numbers, if the election were held today, the race would likely go to a runoff between Deal and Carter. However, we have weighted African-American voters to the higher level of predicted turnout. Should that turnout be less, and Hunt’s numbers drop to the more traditional Libertarian vote, then the race would move towards a Deal victory with no runoff.
“The 65 and over age group tells the story both of the impact of news coverage and the failure of the Carter campaign to attack issues that would move voters their way. Older voters are the most likely to consistently read newspapers and watch local television news. Stories related to ethics have kept thus usually faithful GOP segment of voters more divided in this race. One needs only to look at fellow Republican David Perdue’s strength among this age group to see what impact Carter ads centered on these same news stories could have with younger age groups.
“Finally, this race, absent a stronger ad campaign by Carter’s team, is more a battle between Deal and Libertarian Andrew Hunt. If the Deal campaign can lower Hunt’s numbers, the race no longer becomes a potential for runoff and Deal wins with more than 50% of the vote. Carter’s campaign is running out of time to deliver a stronger message, as he is losing all age groups other than the 18-29 group,” said Towery.
“If this race were held today Perdue would likely win without a runoff. Nunn is close to Perdue among female voters, but is losing badly among male voters. Unlike Carter in the gubernatorial contest, she has no ethics-related or other consistent news story that might hurt Perdue in newspapers and on local TV news. Hence, her numbers among older voters are not competitive with Perdue. Among independent voters Nunn is underperforming as compared to her Democratic counterpart Carter.
We may well be starting to see President Obama’s polling numbers, which have suffered as of late, starting to impact Democratic candidates for the U.S. House and Senate. And Nunn’s position in future polls may improve should President Obama’s approval ratings rise. But for the moment the general trend, not only in our poll but the recent CBS/NYT survey would suggest that this race may be coming closer to meeting the national expectations as to a likely Republican victory. That said, this race remains fluid. Should Nunn find a way to appeal to male voters, the contest could become competitive again, but for the moment Perdue has a clear advantage,” said Towery.