North Carolina: Hagan looking good. Nate Silverman’s fivethirtyeight.com reports that US Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has gone from a 46% chance of reelection a month ago to an 80% chance today. 538 notes that the latest survey, taken by National Research, gave Hagan 46% to 41% for the GOP’s Thom Tillis. Moreover, Hagan has led in the last ten non-campaign sponsored surveys. However, the website still gives Republicans a 58% to 42% chance of winning a Senate majority.
Arkansas: RCP gives lead to GOP. Republicans lead in the Real Clear Politics average for the top races in the Razorback State. In the US Senate race, crucial to the GOP’s hopes of winning a majority of the upper chamber, challenger Tom Cotton (R) leads US Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 3.6 points. And in the governor’s race, the RCP average gives Republican Asa Hutchinson a 4.4 point lead over Democrat Mike Ross. Although former President Bill Clinton, an Arkansas native, has campaigned extensively for his fellow Democrats here, President Obama, who lost the state by 20 points in 2008 and 24 points in 2012, continues to be a drag on Democratic candidates here.
Kentucky: Grimes’ poll shows her leading McConnell. A survey of registered voters taken by the Mellman Group for Alison Lundergan Grimes’ (D) US Senate campaign shows her ahead of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) by 42% to 40%. The poll is at odds with recent independent polls, however. The NBC/Marist poll showed McConnell 8 points ahead; the recent CNN survey showed McConnell leading by 4 points.