Kentucky, Florida, & Mississippi

Kentucky: Grimes grabs the lead. The latest Bluegrass Poll, taken by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal and other media, shows Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes with 46% to 44% for US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). McConnell has consistently led in some 14 independent polls and this is the first survey since June showing Grimes ahead. McConnell’s campaign dismisses the poll as an outlier; Grimes’ says it shows a trend. Nate Silverman’s fivethirtyeight.com still gives McConnell a 77% chance of winning. Still …
Florida: Scott still ahead. In a YouGov/CBS News/New York Times online survey, Sunshine State Gov. Rick Scott (R) has 47% to 44% for former governor Charlie Crist (D). The survey was taken for WTSP/Channel 10 and the News-Press, which reports that its model forecasts a Scott victory, with a not-very-high 52.2% probability.
Mississippi: Childers turns Right on immigration. Former US Rep. Travis Childers (D), the Democratic nominee for the US Senate against Republican US Sen. Thad Cochran (R), has signed the anti-amnesty pledge sponsored by FAIR, a group opposing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Childers cites Mississippi’s unemployment rate as a reason for his stance, but politics probably played a role, too. Cochran has refused to sign the pledge, which was supported by his primary opponent, Chris McDaniel. Liberal critics contend Childers is trying to win over McDaniel’s rightwing supporters. Surely not.