Trump beat Romney in Dixie

Trump beat Romney in Dixie

By Hastings Wyman –

In ten of the South’s 13 states, Donald Trump’s margin over Hillary Clinton exceeded that of Mitt Romney over President Obama in 2012. Some of the gaps were major. In Kentucky, Trump gained 11 points on Romney; in Alabama, Trump had 9 points on Romney; and he gained six points on the 2012 GOP standard bearer in Mississippi and Tennessee. Trump’s edge over Romney was less impressive, but still significant in 6 other Southern states: LA 3, SC 3, AR 2, FL 2, OK 2 & NC 1. In three states, however, Clinton gained a bit over Obama’s 2016 margins: TX 6, GA 3 & VA 2, due at least in part to significant demographic changes in the electorates in these three states.

In sum, Southern voters gave Trump a more impressive victory over Clinton than they provided over Romney over Obama in 2016. But there were pockets of Democratic gains – in Georgia, Texas and Virginia – and these are significant.

2016 vs. 2012 in the South

2016 Trump Clinton Margin     Romney Obama Margin

AL               63        35         +28R           61           38        +19R

AR              60        34         +26R           61           37        +24R

FL              49        48         +1R              49          50         +1D

GA             51         46         +5R              53          45          +8R

KY            63         33          +30R           61          38          +19R

LA            58         38          +20R          58          41           +17R

MS           58        49           +18R          56           44           +12R

NC            51        47           +4R            51            48           +3R

OK           65        29            +36R          67          33           +34R

SC            55         41            +14R          55          44           +11R

TN           61         35            +26R          59         39           +20R

TX          53           43          +10R           57         41            +16R

VA         45           50           +5D             48         51            +3D