The money favors the Democrats, even in super Red Dixie

The money favors the Democrats, even in super Red Dixie

By Hastings Wyman

Money isn’t everything, but it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place. As in life, that’s not entirely true, but in politics, the ability of candidates to raise money is an important indicator of his or her prospects, in either a primary or the General Election.

Based on money alone, both the cash-on-hand at the end of the 1st Quarter as well as the amount of money raised so far, Democrats are poised to flip seven and maybe eight Republican congressional seats in the South in November.

In some districts, such as Georgia’s 7th, Kentucky’s 6th, Texas’s 7th, and Virginia’s 7th and 10th, all of which could flip from Red to Blue, the amount of cash-on-hand may not be the key figure. Rather, the amount raised so far indicates not only the candidate’s ability to raise money, but also the confidence that donors – individuals or organizations – have in that candidate’s prospects. And the money raised will ultimately finance the campaign, from television spots to polling to get-out-the-vote operations.

Other districts that look good for the Democrats moneywise include Florida 7, vacated by US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), where Democratic candidates have raised big money – three of them bringing in more than $1 million each while the three GOPers together raised $1 million.

In two North Carolina districts, the 9th and the 13th, the Republican incumbents have not matched the fundraising of their Democratic challengers. The challengers also have more cash-on-hand.

In some districts, the Democrats’ fundraising edge may be deceptive. If the Democrats are in a contested primary, they may have to spend heavily to win the nomination, leaving their funds depleted as November 6 draws near. In others, the primary campaign may be so heated that it will be difficult to unite the party faithful in the General Election.

The Republicans are ponying up in some key contests; the GOP campaigns in Florida’s 16th, 18th and 26th Districts are good examples.

The bottom line, however, is that the Democrats’ enthusiasm is showing up in their campaign bank accounts. In many cases, Republican incumbents are bringing in respectable amounts, but not enough to ensure their reelection in this tumultuous year.

There is a lot of time left, but for now, the GOP, the Grand Old Party of big money, isn’t the party of fat campaign accounts. This year, that title belongs to the Democrats. Stay tuned!

All the numbers are from the Federal Election Commission. The 1st Quarter numbers include all funds raised in this election cycle. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

District/candidates 1st Quarter Cash-on-hand

AL 2: June 5 primary

Martha Roby/R*               $1,314,000 $821,000

Bobby Neal Bright Sr./R  345,000 330,000

Barry Moore/R                   92,000 5,000

Rich Hobson/R                  45,000 28,000

Tabitha Isner/D                130,000 77,000

AR 2

French Hill/R*         $1,300,000 $1,534,000

Clarke Tucker/D       505,000 445,000

Paul Spencer/D        251,000 120,000

Gwen Combs/D       26,000 8,000

FL 6/OPEN: August 28 primary

John Ward/R          $912,000 $709,000

Michael Waltz/R       707,000 653,000

Nancy Soderberg/D  926,000 595,000

Stephen Sevigny/D   251,000 227,000

John Upchurch/D     149,000 124,000

FL 7: August 28 primary

Stephanie Murphy/D* $1,774,000 $1,283,000

Scott Sturgill/R               520,000 366,000

Mike Miller/R                 327,000 271,000

FL 16: August 28 primary

Vern Buchanan/R* $1,471,000 $2,565,000

David Shapiro/D       652,000 498,000

Jan Schneider/D       67,000 80,000

FL 18: August 28 primary

Brian Mast/R*       $2,920.000 $1,526,000

Lauren Baer/D         1,042,000 708,000

Pam Keith/D            359,000 50,000

Carla Spalding/Ind 267,000 85,000

FL 26:

Carlos Curbelo/R*                $2,813,000 $2,101,000

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell/D 926,000 702,000

FL 27/OPEN: August 28 primary

Bruno Barreiro/R     $541,000 $421,000

Maria Salazar/R         303,000 288,000

Stephen Marks/R      200,000 195,000

Donna Shalala/D       1,174,000 1,107,000

David Richardson/D 1,437,000 1,032,000

Matt Haggman/D       1,160,000 870,000

Mary Barzee Flores/D 729,000 399,000

Kristen Rosen Gonzalez/D 346,000 137,000

GA 6: June 25 primary

Karen Handel/R $7,340,000 $792,000

Bobby Kaple/D     558,000 415,000

Kevin Abel/D        460,000 327,000

GA 7: June 25 primary

Rob Woodall/R*         $540,000 $472,000

David Kim/D                 562,000 186,000

Ethan Pham/D              299,000 140,000

Carolyn Bourdeaux/D 472,000 276,000

KY 6: May 22 primary

Andy Barr/R*     $2,255,000 $2,221,000

Amy McGrath/D 1,798,000 624,000

James Gray/D     1,138,000 826,000

NC 2: May 8 primary

George Holding/R* $1,614,000 $285,000

Ken Romley/D           572,000 62,000

Linda Coleman/D      141,000 63,000

NC 3: May 8 primary

Charles Jones/R* $351,000 $67,000

Scott Dacey/R          378,000 43,000

Philip Law/R            86,000 33,000

NC 9: May 8 primary

Robert Pittenger/R* $1,267,000 $200,000

Mark Harris/R             573,000 71,000

Daniel McCready/D    1,916,000 1,221,000

NC 13:

Theodore Budd/R* $877,000 $535,000

Kathy Manning/D     1.265,000 1,007,000

OK 1/OPEN: June 26 primary

Kevin Hern/R     $1,096,000 $407,000

Andy Coleman/R  228,000 107,000

Tim Harris/R        249,000 130,000

Nathan Dahm/R  95,000 47,000

OK 2: June 26 primary

Markwayne Mullin/R* $945,000 $544,000

Jarrin Jackson/R             138,000 14,000

John McCarthy/R            114,000 67,000

OK 5: June 26 primary

Steve Russell/R* $485,000 $349,000

Kendra Horn/D     287,000 120,000

Tom Guild/D         54,000 38,000

SC 1: June 12 primary

Mark Sanford/R*   $728,000 $1,715,000

Katie Arrington/R    583,000 387,000

Joe Cunningham/D 443,000 219,000

SC 5

Ralph Norman/R* $2,001,000 $408,000

Archie Parnell/R      1,694,000 415,000

TN 2/OPEN: August 2 primary

Jimmy Matlock/R $471,000 $312,000

Tim Burchett/R        380,000 239,000

Jason Emert/R         209,000 116,000

Joshua Williams/D  104,000 26,000

TN 6/OPEN: August 2 primary

John Rose/R     $1,544,000 $1,017,000

Bob Curlew/R      1,315,000 1,074,000

Judd Matheny/R 216,000 16,000

TN 7/OPEN: August 2 primary

Mark Green/R   $1,190,000 $769,000

Justin Kanew/D 211,000 127,000

Matt Reel/D        100,000 78,000

TX 7: May 22 runoff

John Culberson/R*         $1,540,000 $921,000

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher/D 1,267,000 392,000

Laura Moser/D                  1,069,000 92,000

TX 23: May 22 runoff

Will Hurd/R*         $2,374,000 $1,564,000

Gina Ortiz Jones/D 1,025,000 322,000

Rick Trevino/D        40,000 15,000

TX 32: May 22 runoff

Pete Sessions/R* $2,054,000 $1,510,000

Colin Allred/D       829,000 220,000

Lillian Salerno/D  596,000 157,000

VA 5:

Tom Garrett/R*    $434,000 $133,000

Leslie Cockburn/D 715,000 271,000

VA 6/OPEN: May 19 convention

Ben Cline/R          $220,000 $59,000

Cynthia Dunbar/R 104,000 25,000

Chaz Haywood/R   52,000 16,000

VA 7: June 12 primary

David Brat/R*            $913,000 $699,000

Daniel Ward/D             786,000 508,000

Abigail Spanberger/D 725,000 476,000

VA 10: June 12 primary

Barbara Comstock/R* $2,793,000 $1,822,000

Shak Hill/R                      103,000 66,000

Alison Friedman/D        1,379,000 818,000

Daniel Helmer/D           895,000 516,000

Jennifer Wexton/D       928,000 631,000

Lindsey Stover/D          851,000 472,000

Paul Pelletier/D             398,000 191,000

Julia Biggins/D             103,000 66,000

Julien Modica/D           100 548,000