The money favors the Democrats

The money favors the Democrats

By Hastings Wyman –

There are 18 US House seats in the South currently held by Republicans that are potential Democratic pickups this fall. There is only one Democratic seat that the GOP might flip (FL 7).

The Democrats need 24 seats to win control of the House. If a sizable number come from the South, usually a Republican stronghold, then the Democrats chances of winning the necessary 24 seats, and a majority in the House, increases significantly.

The 18 vulnerable Republican seats include three GOP incumbents who are trailing in funds, either in funds raised or on hand. US Rep. Theodore Budd (R) in NC 13 trails challenger Kathy Manning (D). US Rep. John Culberson (R) in TX 7 has raised less than Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. And US Rep. David Brat (R) in VA 7 hasn’t raised as much as Abigail Spanberger (D), although he has more cash-on-hand.

In two districts where Republican incumbents lost primaries to more Trump-friendly contenders, the Democratic nominees are ahead in the money chase. In NC 9, Democrat Daniel McCready has a major lead over Mark Harris (R), who defeated US Rep. Robert Pittenger (R) in the primary. And in SC 1, where Katie Arrington (R) defeated US Rep. Mark Sanford (R) in the primary, her Democratic opponent Joe Cunningham has raised more money and has more cash-on-hand than Arrington. Arrington’s injuries in a car accident may have slowed down her campaign. On the other hand, Sanford has recently given Cunningham a boost by a post-primary attack on Arrington on an offshore drilling issue.

In another four districts, Democrats have raised more money than the non-incumbent Republican contender. In FL 6, while primaries have not yet chosen the nominees, Nancy Soderberg (D), the leading Democrat, has raised significantly more money than John Ward, the leading Republican. In FL 27, virtually all of the Democratic contenders are ahead of the Republicans in the money chase. In GA 7, the two Democrats competing in a runoff each raised more money than US Rep. Rob Woodall (R), although he has more cash-on-hand. And in VA 5, Leslie Cockburn (D) has raised much more money, and has more on hand, than Denver Riggleman (R).

In addition to these nine districts where Democrats have either raised more money, or have more on hand, than the Republicans, other GOP seats are at risk because the Democratic candidate is close behind the Republican in campaign finances, or because of other issues. For example, in TN 4, third-term Scott Desjarlais (R) is ahead in campaign finances, but one of his Democratic foes, Mariah Phillips, is waging an energetic campaign against him and, as usual, his controversial past is getting attention once again.

And US Senate races in Florida, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, as well as a number of gubernatorial contests, could influence the down-ballot races, including congressional contests.

Finally, the Blue Wave versus the Trump factor is at this point the big unknown. Will the surge in Democratic turnout – young voters, African Americans, pro-gun control and pro-choice women – that has occurred in most of the special elections, including in the South, show up this fall? Or will it be offset by a major turnout among the ever-loyal pro-Trump Republicans who dominated the 2016 elections?

Stay tuned.

All the numbers are from the Federal Election Commission. The 2nd Quarter numbers include all of the funds raised in this election cycle. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

Campaign finance reports for post-primary races

District/candidates 2nd Quarter Cash-on-hand

AL 2

Martha Roby/R* $2,186,000 $731,000

Tabitha Isner/D 240,000 87,000

AR 2

French Hill/R* $1,955,000 $1,645,000

Clarke Tucker/D 976,000 386,000

GA 6

Karen Handel/R $7,711,000 $1,003,000

Bobby Kaple/D 689,000 6,000

KY 6

Andy Barr/R* $3,169,000 $2,768.000

Amy McGrath/D 3,025,000 734,000

NC 2

George Holding/R* $1,859,000 $253,000

Linda Coleman/D 300,000 157,000

NC 9: Open

Mark Harris/R $931,000 $296,000

Daniel McCready/D 2,674,000 1,804,000

NC 13

Theodore Budd/R* $1,220,000 $779,000

Kathy Manning/D 1,935,000 1,345,000

SC 1: Open

Katie Arrington/R $715,000 $62,000

Joe Cunningham/D 796,000 319,000

SC 5

Ralph Norman/R* $2,159,000 $496,000

Archie Parnell/R 1,880,000 405,000

TX 7

John Culberson/R* $2,025,000 $1,263,000

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher/D 2,322,000 797,000

TX 23

Will Hurd/R* $3,058,000 $2,019,000

Gina Ortiz Jones/D 2,256,000 1,151,000

TX 32

Pete Sessions/R* $2,750,000 $1,874,000

Colin Allred/D 1,917,000 943,000

VA 2

Scott Taylor/R* $2,741,000 $1,007,000

Elaine Luria/D 1,319,000 818,000

VA 5/Open

Denver Riggleman/R $217,000 $208,000

Leslie Cockburn/D 1,289,000 483,000

VA 7

David Brat/R* $1,333,000 $917,000

Abigail Spanberger/D 1,352,000 465,000

VA 10:

Barbara Comstock/R* $3,819,000 $1,717,000

Jennifer Wexton/D 1,934,000 766,000

 

Campaign finance reports for pre-primary or runoff races

FL 6/OPEN: August 28 primary

John Ward/R $1,052,000 $467,000

Michael Waltz/R 1,012,000 617,000

Fred Costello/R 180,000 51,000

Nancy Soderberg/D 1,470,000 982,000

Stephen Sevigny/D 605,000 366,000

John Upchurch/D 258,000 172,000

FL 7: August 28 primary

Stephanie Murphy/D* $2,325,000 $1,638,000

Scott Sturgill/R 646,000 338,000

Mike Miller/R 542,000 380,000

FL 16: August 28 primary

Vern Buchanan/R* $2,122,000 $1,638,000

David Shapiro/D 1,058,000 785,000

Jan Schneider/D 71,000 82,000

FL 18: August 28 primary

Brian Mast/R* $3,944,000 $1,980,000

Mark Freeman/R 155,000 50,000

Lauren Baer/D 1,562,000 1,040,000

Pam Keith/D 484,000 68,000

Carla Spalding/Ind 504,000 55,000

FL 26

Carlos Curbelo/R* $3,598,000 $2,601,000

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell/D 1,659,000 1,264,000

Demetries Grimes/D 106,000 44,000

FL 27/OPEN: August 28 primary

Maria Salazar/R $643,000 $578,000

Bruno Barreiro/R 576,000 180,000

Stephen Marks/R 200,000 195,000

Donna Shalala/D 1,941,000 1,131,000

David Richardson/D 1,847,000 762,000

Matt Haggman/D 1,344,000 746,000

Ken Russell/D 774,000 126,000

Kristen Rosen Gonzalez/D 401,000 81,000

GA 7: July 24 runoff

Rob Woodall/R* $725,000 $529,000

David Kim/D 1,231,000 86,000

Carolyn Bourdeaux/D 852,000 98,000

OK 1/OPEN: August 28 runoff

Kevin Hern/R $2,269,000 $752,000

Tim Harris/R 299,000 24,000

Tim Gilpin/D 116,000 34,000

Amanda Douglas/D 7,000 1,000

OK 2: August 28 runoff

Markwayne Mullin/R* $1,237,000 $239,000

Jason Nichols/D 50,000 4,000

Clay Padgett/D 64,000 2,000

OK 5: August 28 runoff

Steve Russell/R* $698,000 $475,000

Kendra Horn/D 417,000 25,000

Tom Guild/D 76,000 18,000

TN 2/OPEN: August 2 primary

Jimmy Matlock/R $697,000 $232,000

Tim Burchett/R 608,000 239,000

Jason Emert/R 433,000 182,000

Sarah Nickloes/R 147,000 77,000

Renee Hoyos/D 130,000 61,000

Joshua Williams/D 119,000 24,000

TN 4/August 2 primary

Scott Desjarlais/R $432,000 $370,000

Mariah Phillips/D 284,000 109,000

Steve Reynolds/D 45,000 12,000

TN 6/OPEN: August 2 primary

John Rose/R $2,919,000 $1,560,000

Bob Curlew/R 1,520,000 669,000

Judd Matheny/R 259,000 24,000

TN 7/OPEN: August 2 primary

Mark Green/R $1,610,000 $910,000

Justin Kanew/D 257,000 107,000

Matt Reel/D 156,000 75,000